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michael_nielsen's profile
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
@michael_nielsen

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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Joined July 2008

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    1. Casey Handmer, PhD‏ @CJHandmer Jan 20
      • Report Tweet

      I love this chart showing ~30% year on year growth of solar deployment. What, in your opinion, would most help to increase that rate? Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics …pic.twitter.com/aPFtVLlFHO

      5 replies 0 retweets 10 likes
    2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen Jan 20
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @CJHandmer

      Lots of bad policies would (over-subsidizing it, for instance). But among helpful actions, I'd love to see vastly better batteries.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen Jan 20
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen @CJHandmer

      Great chart, BTW, sent me down the Wikipedia rabbithole! I wonder how the actual output scales along the chart?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Casey Handmer, PhD‏ @CJHandmer Jan 20
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen

      It would have to match it pretty closely, because it's a logarithmic scale. Early plants get exponentially washed out, so don't matter. And more recent ones have to be used or there would be no follow-on investment. Recent data suggests solar is easier to price than wind.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen Jan 20
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      Replying to @CJHandmer

      California's solar is leading to a negative price reasonably often. And it doesn't work at night without large-scale batteries. The Gigafactory is producing tens of GWh of batteries (annualized), which is a rounding error on the scale of the world electricity grid.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen Jan 20
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen @CJHandmer

      TBC: I'm enthusiastic about solar. But the magnitude of the task is orders of magnitude beyond where we're at. Looks like we need battery production at least 100x (actually more) than the Gigafactory to make solar competitive with standard base load.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Casey Handmer, PhD‏ @CJHandmer Jan 20
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen

      If you extrapolate the logarithmic solar growth chart, we'll get to current levels of electricity production in about 12 years. Of course, by then the marginal cost will have dropped a lot, stimulating demand...

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
      michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen Jan 20
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      Replying to @CJHandmer

      Is that capacity or output you're talking about? My understanding is that solar output is typically about 20% of capacity, much lower than coal or nuclear. And it may drop as low as 5% for extended periods in high latitudes.

      11:19 PM - 20 Jan 2019
      • 1 Like
      • Casey Handmer, PhD
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. Casey Handmer, PhD‏ @CJHandmer Jan 20
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          Replying to @michael_nielsen

          If 30% year on year growth is maintained, it could climb from peak output to average output in two years, justifying my handwavey error bars.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
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