I love this chart showing ~30% year on year growth of solar deployment. What, in your opinion, would most help to increase that rate? Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics …pic.twitter.com/aPFtVLlFHO
Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/
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I love this chart showing ~30% year on year growth of solar deployment. What, in your opinion, would most help to increase that rate? Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics …pic.twitter.com/aPFtVLlFHO
Lots of bad policies would (over-subsidizing it, for instance). But among helpful actions, I'd love to see vastly better batteries.
Great chart, BTW, sent me down the Wikipedia rabbithole! I wonder how the actual output scales along the chart?
It would have to match it pretty closely, because it's a logarithmic scale. Early plants get exponentially washed out, so don't matter. And more recent ones have to be used or there would be no follow-on investment. Recent data suggests solar is easier to price than wind.
California's solar is leading to a negative price reasonably often. And it doesn't work at night without large-scale batteries. The Gigafactory is producing tens of GWh of batteries (annualized), which is a rounding error on the scale of the world electricity grid.
TBC: I'm enthusiastic about solar. But the magnitude of the task is orders of magnitude beyond where we're at. Looks like we need battery production at least 100x (actually more) than the Gigafactory to make solar competitive with standard base load.
So this article claims Gigafactory is at 20 GWh annualized production. Typical worldwide electricity demand is, IIRC, tens of TW. So it means the entire Gigafactory output is good for a few seconds of grid-scale electricity.https://electrek.co/2018/08/02/tesla-gigafactory-1-battery-production-20-gwh/ …
BTW, what do you mean "solar is easier to price than wind"? Very interesting!
https://www.solarpowerworldonline.com/2017/08/solar-projects-beat-forecasts-wind-falls-short/ … found that while wind plants often underperform design goals, solar PV plants typically outperform design specs by a narrower margin, which makes them less risky to invest in.
Very interesting. Given the source I'd ofc want to know what wind people said about it. (Or, even better, an investor who has done a detailed study in preparation for investing in both.)
Let me know if you find something. If money talks, the growth of investment in solar is significantly leading that of wind. Part of that is that there is only so much available onshore wind power land area in countries that can invest in it, and much of it is already exploited.
I was interested to learn that the cut for project finance is about 50%. Seems steep for commodity installation with guaranteed demand.
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