I love this chart showing ~30% year on year growth of solar deployment. What, in your opinion, would most help to increase that rate? Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics …pic.twitter.com/aPFtVLlFHO
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California's solar is leading to a negative price reasonably often. And it doesn't work at night without large-scale batteries. The Gigafactory is producing tens of GWh of batteries (annualized), which is a rounding error on the scale of the world electricity grid.
TBC: I'm enthusiastic about solar. But the magnitude of the task is orders of magnitude beyond where we're at. Looks like we need battery production at least 100x (actually more) than the Gigafactory to make solar competitive with standard base load.
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If you extrapolate the logarithmic solar growth chart, we'll get to current levels of electricity production in about 12 years. Of course, by then the marginal cost will have dropped a lot, stimulating demand...
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Is that capacity or output you're talking about? My understanding is that solar output is typically about 20% of capacity, much lower than coal or nuclear. And it may drop as low as 5% for extended periods in high latitudes.
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So this article claims Gigafactory is at 20 GWh annualized production. Typical worldwide electricity demand is, IIRC, tens of TW. So it means the entire Gigafactory output is good for a few seconds of grid-scale electricity.https://electrek.co/2018/08/02/tesla-gigafactory-1-battery-production-20-gwh/ …
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The exciting thing about giga is that the cost of production is about 50% better than the next best option (IIRC), which is a jump of maybe 6 years of "business as usual". That's what I meant by one more gigafactory and the processes will be in place for cheap batteries.
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Musk did say we need O(100) Gigafactories to come off non-renewables.
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Indeed, but they don't have to be build serially.
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