I love this chart showing ~30% year on year growth of solar deployment. What, in your opinion, would most help to increase that rate? Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Growth_of_photovoltaics …pic.twitter.com/aPFtVLlFHO
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It would have to match it pretty closely, because it's a logarithmic scale. Early plants get exponentially washed out, so don't matter. And more recent ones have to be used or there would be no follow-on investment. Recent data suggests solar is easier to price than wind.
California's solar is leading to a negative price reasonably often. And it doesn't work at night without large-scale batteries. The Gigafactory is producing tens of GWh of batteries (annualized), which is a rounding error on the scale of the world electricity grid.
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TBC: I'm enthusiastic about solar. But the magnitude of the task is orders of magnitude beyond where we're at. Looks like we need battery production at least 100x (actually more) than the Gigafactory to make solar competitive with standard base load.
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If you extrapolate the logarithmic solar growth chart, we'll get to current levels of electricity production in about 12 years. Of course, by then the marginal cost will have dropped a lot, stimulating demand...
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