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Bertrand Russell, at his Principia Mathematica best, was spectacular: “Everything is vague to a degree you do not realize till you have tried to make it precise.” This is precisely why we should push ourselves to translate our vague, hunches into scorable probability judgmentspic.twitter.com/pZy2CSclYa
I think Tukey was also right: "Far better an approximate answer to the right question, which is often vague, than an exact answer to the wrong question, which can always be made precise." There's considerable tension between these two points of view, which needs to be managed
There's a third point of view: sometimes an approximate answer to the right question is more useful than a precise answer to the right question. E.g. Romeo and Juliet was written in late 1595. Please don't ask me to specify the day or even the month.
And here we all are in our biz culture today trying to wedge our arguments into the latter format
That seems to place a lot of faith in humans’ ability to identify the right questions. In some cases it might be better to err on the side of precision, if for no other reason than to develop a habit of building in-principle-testable models
I think the original quote is more in the line of trying to teach something is one of the surest way of checking your understanding. Your observation is also vital but doesn't seem to inhabit the same plane. I also think it is unavoidable--can't know what's better ahead of time
But I agree, being careful in where you choose to allocate resources in exploration (but not trying too much to anticipate which will just yield autocorrelation, not good either) and knowing when to backtrack are key.
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