We gathered 4,483 such comparisons. From this portfolio of questions we can back out progress in science (according to this metric) over the decades.
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Here's the results for physics, showing a decline:pic.twitter.com/QgqebTkvwv
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Here's the results for chemistry, and for physiology or medicine, showing, perhaps, a slight improvement:pic.twitter.com/9SJKd4j4xt
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What's being plotted: the probability a discovery made in that decade is ranked above discoveries made in other decades.
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The kicker is: the amount we're investing in science has gone up enormously (think 10-100x) over the same time period, whether you look at $, number of scientists, or number of publicationspic.twitter.com/9gBu2FREw0
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We're in an age of diminishing returns to scientific efforthttps://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/ …
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Lots of disclaimers: this is just one metric, there's plenty of shortcomings of the metric. We're very aware of that and discuss this in the essay.https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/ …
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Nonetheless, the conclusion should be taken seriously, not dismissed lightly. This is in some sense a collective judgement from scientists themselves: science is getting vastly more expensive, and far from accelerating, progress is at best constant (by this metric).
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There's lots of corroborating evidence: e.g., the rise in ages at which scientists make key discoveries. Here are the average ages of discovery for early versus recent Nobel prizewinning discoveries. (Jones and Weinberg: http://www.pnas.org/content/108/47/18910 … )pic.twitter.com/vCsj7UNjhU
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Replying to @michael_nielsen
Some of this rise in ages is a political thematic shift from single-effort awards to lifetime-achievement awards. The late-period committees are deciding the "who" first and then backfill the "what", and thus biases toward those who've had a longer career.
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It'd be interesting to find a smoking gun for that. Anecdotally I've heard similar, though but one naturally wonders if earlier decades were any different.
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