Here's the results for physics, showing a decline:pic.twitter.com/QgqebTkvwv
Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/
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Here's the results for physics, showing a decline:pic.twitter.com/QgqebTkvwv
Here's the results for chemistry, and for physiology or medicine, showing, perhaps, a slight improvement:pic.twitter.com/9SJKd4j4xt
What's being plotted: the probability a discovery made in that decade is ranked above discoveries made in other decades.
The kicker is: the amount we're investing in science has gone up enormously (think 10-100x) over the same time period, whether you look at $, number of scientists, or number of publicationspic.twitter.com/9gBu2FREw0
We're in an age of diminishing returns to scientific efforthttps://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/ …
Lots of disclaimers: this is just one metric, there's plenty of shortcomings of the metric. We're very aware of that and discuss this in the essay.https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/ …
Nonetheless, the conclusion should be taken seriously, not dismissed lightly. This is in some sense a collective judgement from scientists themselves: science is getting vastly more expensive, and far from accelerating, progress is at best constant (by this metric).
There's lots of corroborating evidence: e.g., the rise in ages at which scientists make key discoveries. Here are the average ages of discovery for early versus recent Nobel prizewinning discoveries. (Jones and Weinberg: http://www.pnas.org/content/108/47/18910 … )pic.twitter.com/vCsj7UNjhU
The rise in size of scientific research teams also suggests it’s getting harder to make discoveries. (Fortunato et al: http://barabasi.com/f/939.pdf )pic.twitter.com/MPtSlh36IL
A team can be more than the sum of its members, but the kind of 'breakthrough' made by a large team is never going to be a conceptual one, is it? So this graph may be saying the opposite of what you're assuming.
We're not particularly assuming breakthroughs are conceptual. I don't really grant your first assertion, either, although I understand the arguments that can be made for it.
On the first assertion, I think examples like (say) general relativity are very interesting. It can be viewed as the outcome of a team, across history - Euclid, Newton, Lobachevsky, Riemann, Einstein (and many, many others, of course).
General relativity is. The concepts that distinguish general relativity from predecessors are breakthroughs made by Einstein.
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