My interlocutors failed badly at both (a) and (b). In fact, it's clear they had no real data on (b) at all. And their judgement of (a) was perhaps distorted because I wasn't (to put it mildly) a respectful, obedient, easy-to-handle student.
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I should add: I also had many remarkably encouraging mentors (Gerard Milburn, Ben Schumacher, Carl Caves, Halina Rubinsztein-Dunlop, and many more)
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(b) is useful. (a) is (in intellectual fields) impossible to know. One of many reasons for focusing on fun rather than prophecy.
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I think (a) can be useful when someone's potential is opaque to them. I've known so many people who think they "shouldn't" be interested in something (usually because it's low status among their friends). Eg a physicist friend just loved putting on a show, theatre, & explaining
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(b) is an argument for faculty who stay active (better yet, continue to publish) in their field.
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He was quite active. But he worked in a very unusual and rather atypical part of physics, and that perhaps skewed his point of view.
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