In a similar vein, there’s the recent work by Bloom, Jones, Van Reenen, and Webb, suggesting that ideas are getting harder to find: https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/IdeaPF.pdf …pic.twitter.com/cbrao49xf0
Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/
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In a similar vein, there’s the recent work by Bloom, Jones, Van Reenen, and Webb, suggesting that ideas are getting harder to find: https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/IdeaPF.pdf …pic.twitter.com/cbrao49xf0
This all suggests it's getting much, much harder to make progress.
One response is to say "Well, it's inevitable that things get harder", and to shrug and continue on your way. But if something is requiring ~100 times the investment as formerly, it's a good idea to seriously consider whether it's possible to do better!
As far as we know there's no serious, large-scale, organized institutional response to the challenge of diminishing returns in science. And given that science is a principal driver of our civilization's progress, a high-order bit for humanity, that's a problem.
The recent MIT ML move springs to mindhttp://news.mit.edu/2018/mit-reshapes-itself-stephen-schwarzman-college-of-computing-1015 …
I saw the initial announcement, but don't know much more beyond that. Curious: what do you think it's doing differently? (Or do you mean that AI may ultimately make a big difference to science? I agree that may happen, & am hopeful.)
Computing (and AI) have already transformed fields beyond recogition. I'm pretty sure there's still more to gain in many other fields, though it will require far more complex modeling (e.g. in humanities) and cross field knowledge sharing.
Computing certainly has. I'm not sure about AI. What do you have in mind?
Computer vision is currently totally dominated by AI. Many other fields are being assailed by AI in challenges, like NLP, medical imaging, even particle physics. I'm personally not betting on AI winning out on modeling in those fields, but it'll surely play a lasting role.
Computer vision and NLP have always overlapped a lot with AI,& arguably been part of it. The medical imaging stuff I know of is interesting enough, but much of it seems oversold. The particle physics stuff is interesting, but a long way from taking over.
That said, I won't be surprised if the medical imaging stuff becomes very important over the next 5-10 years, and if that happens it will be (but isn't yet) a major success.
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