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michael_nielsen's profile
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
@michael_nielsen

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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Joined July 2008

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    1. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      Lots of disclaimers: this is just one metric, there's plenty of shortcomings of the metric. We're very aware of that and discuss this in the essay.https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/ …

      4 replies 4 retweets 18 likes
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    2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      Nonetheless, the conclusion should be taken seriously, not dismissed lightly. This is in some sense a collective judgement from scientists themselves: science is getting vastly more expensive, and far from accelerating, progress is at best constant (by this metric).

      3 replies 9 retweets 40 likes
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    3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      There's lots of corroborating evidence: e.g., the rise in ages at which scientists make key discoveries. Here are the average ages of discovery for early versus recent Nobel prizewinning discoveries. (Jones and Weinberg: http://www.pnas.org/content/108/47/18910 … )pic.twitter.com/vCsj7UNjhU

      4 replies 12 retweets 27 likes
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    4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      The rise in size of scientific research teams also suggests it’s getting harder to make discoveries. (Fortunato et al: http://barabasi.com/f/939.pdf  )pic.twitter.com/MPtSlh36IL

      5 replies 12 retweets 40 likes
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    5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      There's also the massive decline in the growth of economic productivity since the 1950s, as documented by people such as Robert Gordon https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-American-Growth-Princeton-ebook/dp/B071W7JCKW/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1542218574&sr=8-1&keywords=robert+gordon+rise+and+fall+of+american+growth … and @tylercowen https://www.amazon.com/Great-Stagnation-Low-Hanging-Eventually-eSpecial-ebook/dp/B004H0M8QS/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&qid=1542218607&sr=8-7&keywords=tyler+cowen …pic.twitter.com/1ECYsSIQwv

      4 replies 6 retweets 29 likes
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    6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      In a similar vein, there’s the recent work by Bloom, Jones, Van Reenen, and Webb, suggesting that ideas are getting harder to find: https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/IdeaPF.pdf …pic.twitter.com/cbrao49xf0

      1 reply 12 retweets 51 likes
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    7. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      This all suggests it's getting much, much harder to make progress.

      1 reply 3 retweets 19 likes
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    8. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      One response is to say "Well, it's inevitable that things get harder", and to shrug and continue on your way. But if something is requiring ~100 times the investment as formerly, it's a good idea to seriously consider whether it's possible to do better!

      2 replies 4 retweets 31 likes
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    9. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      As far as we know there's no serious, large-scale, organized institutional response to the challenge of diminishing returns in science. And given that science is a principal driver of our civilization's progress, a high-order bit for humanity, that's a problem.

      9 replies 35 retweets 130 likes
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    10. Patrick Bos‏ @egpbos 17 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @michael_nielsen

      The recent MIT ML move springs to mindhttp://news.mit.edu/2018/mit-reshapes-itself-stephen-schwarzman-college-of-computing-1015 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 17 Nov 2018
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      Replying to @egpbos

      I saw the initial announcement, but don't know much more beyond that. Curious: what do you think it's doing differently? (Or do you mean that AI may ultimately make a big difference to science? I agree that may happen, & am hopeful.)

      10:02 PM - 17 Nov 2018
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        1. Patrick Bos‏ @egpbos 17 Nov 2018
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          Replying to @michael_nielsen

          Computing (and AI) have already transformed fields beyond recogition. I'm pretty sure there's still more to gain in many other fields, though it will require far more complex modeling (e.g. in humanities) and cross field knowledge sharing.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 17 Nov 2018
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          Replying to @egpbos

          Computing certainly has. I'm not sure about AI. What do you have in mind?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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