It's mirrored in the business world: one person can start a business, and with skill and luck that business may grow to outcompete billion-dollar incumbents.
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Almost every funder talks about supporting high-risk research. But that is often just talk. A genuinely high-risk program would evaluate failure rates for past grants, and if the failure rate was _too low_ (below 60%, say), the program officer's job would be on the line.
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Finally, technology: What’s going to be the impact of AI on science? Of intelligence augmentation? Of ideas like open science? Might one or more of these dramatically speed up scientific progress?
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Of course, these are just a few ideas. I believe humanity has barely begun to explore the space of possible approaches to doing science. What are the high-order bits in how we do science? What new approaches can we take to discovery?
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We’re both very, very optimistic that we can do vastly better than today. But it needs new ideas, lots of experiments, and lots of imagination!
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Needs to happen at an earlier level. I wasted many years as a postdoc and never got to tenure track.
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It's an interesting idea. At tenure-track level, a 20k pa policy for 6 years, with reasonable assumptions about tenure rates (80%) and investment return (say 6%) justifies a 700k payout, less profits and costs. So a 500k policy (ballpark) would be reasonable.
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is the risk inherently financial? I wonder what “insurance”looks like for other reputation/credibility-based costs to risky research... seems less actionable... (change incentives/cultures around “failed” work?)
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