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michael_nielsen's profile
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
@michael_nielsen

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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Joined July 2008

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    1. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      There's lots of corroborating evidence: e.g., the rise in ages at which scientists make key discoveries. Here are the average ages of discovery for early versus recent Nobel prizewinning discoveries. (Jones and Weinberg: http://www.pnas.org/content/108/47/18910 … )pic.twitter.com/vCsj7UNjhU

      4 replies 12 retweets 27 likes
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    2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      The rise in size of scientific research teams also suggests it’s getting harder to make discoveries. (Fortunato et al: http://barabasi.com/f/939.pdf  )pic.twitter.com/MPtSlh36IL

      5 replies 12 retweets 40 likes
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    3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      There's also the massive decline in the growth of economic productivity since the 1950s, as documented by people such as Robert Gordon https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-American-Growth-Princeton-ebook/dp/B071W7JCKW/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1542218574&sr=8-1&keywords=robert+gordon+rise+and+fall+of+american+growth … and @tylercowen https://www.amazon.com/Great-Stagnation-Low-Hanging-Eventually-eSpecial-ebook/dp/B004H0M8QS/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&qid=1542218607&sr=8-7&keywords=tyler+cowen …pic.twitter.com/1ECYsSIQwv

      4 replies 6 retweets 29 likes
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    4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      In a similar vein, there’s the recent work by Bloom, Jones, Van Reenen, and Webb, suggesting that ideas are getting harder to find: https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/IdeaPF.pdf …pic.twitter.com/cbrao49xf0

      1 reply 12 retweets 51 likes
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    5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      This all suggests it's getting much, much harder to make progress.

      1 reply 3 retweets 19 likes
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    6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      One response is to say "Well, it's inevitable that things get harder", and to shrug and continue on your way. But if something is requiring ~100 times the investment as formerly, it's a good idea to seriously consider whether it's possible to do better!

      2 replies 4 retweets 31 likes
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    7. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      As far as we know there's no serious, large-scale, organized institutional response to the challenge of diminishing returns in science. And given that science is a principal driver of our civilization's progress, a high-order bit for humanity, that's a problem.

      9 replies 35 retweets 130 likes
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    8. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      So, what to do? That's a subject for another essay (or multiple lifetimes of building). But I can't resist a few thoughts.

      2 replies 3 retweets 25 likes
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    9. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      One huge success of science is how good it is at displacing ideas. If an individual or group has a new, genuinely better idea about the world, it can rapidly grow and displace old ideas. Evolution! General relativity! Etc.

      2 replies 2 retweets 31 likes
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    10. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      It's mirrored in the business world: one person can start a business, and with skill and luck that business may grow to outcompete billion-dollar incumbents.

      1 reply 2 retweets 16 likes
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      michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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      But suppose an individual starts a grant agency or university in their proverbial garage. They simply can’t grow it to outcompete incumbents ("We're replacing the NIH!" “We’re replacing Harvard!”), even if their approach is vastly better.

      5:31 AM - 16 Nov 2018
      • 6 Retweets
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      • (((Jonathan Lee))) Khepri Nikete Ammar H Guillaume Verdon Winning Emergence Spectral Memes Emma Salinas Myles Byrne
      3 replies 6 retweets 37 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          That is: there is no strong growth model or notion of competitive displacement for scientific institutions. And this means stasis and homogeneity and monoculture, a lack of organizational change and learning. This is terrible for science.

          3 replies 37 retweets 149 likes
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        3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          Indeed, it creates a sense that science _must_ be done this way. We must have PIs, a group is composed in such-and-such a way, scientists have a particular career path, are of a particular age, have a certain type of mentoring, produce a certain kind of output, etc.

          3 replies 9 retweets 72 likes
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        4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          But we could change each (or every!) one of these in radical ways.

          1 reply 2 retweets 32 likes
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        5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          Furthermore, it produces apathy. Every scientist has ideas for how to do things differently at the institutional level. But without a growth model for the best ideas, it's easy to feel it's not worth it, that things are forever stuck.

          2 replies 4 retweets 30 likes
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        6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          If you start a better grant agency, it's not going to displace the NIH. But perhaps it should.

          4 replies 2 retweets 19 likes
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        7. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          A few ideas I like (no implied endorsement by Patrick, or originality on my part). Very telegraphic & incomplete - lots of nuance missing, and obvious problems that need to be addressed.

          2 replies 3 retweets 13 likes
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        8. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          Figure out how new fields are produced. At the moment there's a _lot_ of inhibitory forces that slow the rate of production of new fields. Can we programmatically 2x or 10x or 100x the rate of new field production?

          3 replies 11 retweets 59 likes
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        9. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          Far more varied funding strategies: eg by golden ticket (where 1 reviewer can ok a project, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-02743-2 … ); by variance in reviewer scores, using high variance (loved by some, hated by others) as a positive signal; or randomized allocationhttps://mbio.asm.org/content/7/2/e00422-16 …

          1 reply 9 retweets 48 likes
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        10. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          Tenure insurance. For a relatively small additional piece of the benefits package, tenure-track faculty are guaranteed a large payout should they fail to get tenure. It's a cheap way to de-risk the tenure process, and to encourage more risk-taking.

          3 replies 8 retweets 47 likes
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        11. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          Almost every funder talks about supporting high-risk research. But that is often just talk. A genuinely high-risk program would evaluate failure rates for past grants, and if the failure rate was _too low_ (below 60%, say), the program officer's job would be on the line.

          4 replies 20 retweets 79 likes
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        12. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          Finally, technology: What’s going to be the impact of AI on science? Of intelligence augmentation? Of ideas like open science? Might one or more of these dramatically speed up scientific progress?

          4 replies 2 retweets 27 likes
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        13. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          Of course, these are just a few ideas. I believe humanity has barely begun to explore the space of possible approaches to doing science. What are the high-order bits in how we do science? What new approaches can we take to discovery?

          1 reply 3 retweets 30 likes
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        14. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16 Nov 2018
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          We’re both very, very optimistic that we can do vastly better than today. But it needs new ideas, lots of experiments, and lots of imagination!

          15 replies 2 retweets 43 likes
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        15. End of conversation

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