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Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Vrijeme pridruživanja: srpanj 2008.

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    michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
    • Prijavi Tweet

    New essay from @patrickc and myself, arguing that science has suffered from greatly diminishing returns over the past century:https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/ …

    05:02 - 16. stu 2018.
    • 516 proslijeđenih tweetova
    • 1.274 oznake „sviđa mi se”
    • VonnegutVhan Oleg Andreyev Rahul Ramchandani Ray Alejandro Alexander Seifert Melissa Tal Frans Zdyb Dragisa Krsmanovic Gerdes
    516 proslijeđenih tweetova 1.274 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
      1. Novi razgovor
      2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Of course, others have argued for similar conclusions before. But the argument has usually been made anecdotally. We bring a new type of evidence to the discussion.

        2 proslijeđena tweeta 21 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        The trouble with anecdotal argument about the question "What’s the rate of progress in science" is that it's too big and vague a question, and answers are easily swayed by feeling. That makes it easy to dismiss answers that you don't like.

        2 proslijeđena tweeta 31 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        To avoid this problem, we surveyed scientists at leading institutions, asking them to do pairwise comparisons ranking Nobel prizewinning discoveries in their disciplines. Eg: discovery of neutron vs cosmic background radiation? Etc.

        3 proslijeđena tweeta 24 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        We gathered 4,483 such comparisons. From this portfolio of questions we can back out progress in science (according to this metric) over the decades.

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 17 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Here's the results for physics, showing a decline:pic.twitter.com/QgqebTkvwv

        7 replies 7 proslijeđenih tweetova 25 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      7. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Here's the results for chemistry, and for physiology or medicine, showing, perhaps, a slight improvement:pic.twitter.com/9SJKd4j4xt

        1 reply 5 proslijeđenih tweetova 22 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      8. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        What's being plotted: the probability a discovery made in that decade is ranked above discoveries made in other decades.

        4 proslijeđena tweeta 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      9. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        The kicker is: the amount we're investing in science has gone up enormously (think 10-100x) over the same time period, whether you look at $, number of scientists, or number of publicationspic.twitter.com/9gBu2FREw0

        12 replies 17 proslijeđenih tweetova 69 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      10. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        We're in an age of diminishing returns to scientific efforthttps://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/ …

        5 replies 16 proslijeđenih tweetova 45 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      11. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Lots of disclaimers: this is just one metric, there's plenty of shortcomings of the metric. We're very aware of that and discuss this in the essay.https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/11/diminishing-returns-science/575665/ …

        4 proslijeđena tweeta 18 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      12. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Nonetheless, the conclusion should be taken seriously, not dismissed lightly. This is in some sense a collective judgement from scientists themselves: science is getting vastly more expensive, and far from accelerating, progress is at best constant (by this metric).

        9 proslijeđenih tweetova 40 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      13. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        There's lots of corroborating evidence: e.g., the rise in ages at which scientists make key discoveries. Here are the average ages of discovery for early versus recent Nobel prizewinning discoveries. (Jones and Weinberg: http://www.pnas.org/content/108/47/18910 … )pic.twitter.com/vCsj7UNjhU

        12 proslijeđenih tweetova 27 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      14. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        The rise in size of scientific research teams also suggests it’s getting harder to make discoveries. (Fortunato et al: http://barabasi.com/f/939.pdf  )pic.twitter.com/MPtSlh36IL

        5 replies 12 proslijeđenih tweetova 39 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      15. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        There's also the massive decline in the growth of economic productivity since the 1950s, as documented by people such as Robert Gordon https://www.amazon.com/Rise-Fall-American-Growth-Princeton-ebook/dp/B071W7JCKW/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1542218574&sr=8-1&keywords=robert+gordon+rise+and+fall+of+american+growth … and @tylercowen https://www.amazon.com/Great-Stagnation-Low-Hanging-Eventually-eSpecial-ebook/dp/B004H0M8QS/ref=sr_1_7?ie=UTF8&qid=1542218607&sr=8-7&keywords=tyler+cowen …pic.twitter.com/1ECYsSIQwv

        6 proslijeđenih tweetova 28 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      16. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        In a similar vein, there’s the recent work by Bloom, Jones, Van Reenen, and Webb, suggesting that ideas are getting harder to find: https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/IdeaPF.pdf …pic.twitter.com/cbrao49xf0

        1 reply 12 proslijeđenih tweetova 50 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      17. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        This all suggests it's getting much, much harder to make progress.

        1 reply 3 proslijeđena tweeta 18 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      18. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        One response is to say "Well, it's inevitable that things get harder", and to shrug and continue on your way. But if something is requiring ~100 times the investment as formerly, it's a good idea to seriously consider whether it's possible to do better!

        4 proslijeđena tweeta 31 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      19. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        As far as we know there's no serious, large-scale, organized institutional response to the challenge of diminishing returns in science. And given that science is a principal driver of our civilization's progress, a high-order bit for humanity, that's a problem.

        9 replies 35 proslijeđenih tweetova 130 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      20. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        So, what to do? That's a subject for another essay (or multiple lifetimes of building). But I can't resist a few thoughts.

        3 proslijeđena tweeta 24 korisnika označavaju da im se sviđa
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      21. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        One huge success of science is how good it is at displacing ideas. If an individual or group has a new, genuinely better idea about the world, it can rapidly grow and displace old ideas. Evolution! General relativity! Etc.

        2 proslijeđena tweeta 30 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      22. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        It's mirrored in the business world: one person can start a business, and with skill and luck that business may grow to outcompete billion-dollar incumbents.

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 15 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      23. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        But suppose an individual starts a grant agency or university in their proverbial garage. They simply can’t grow it to outcompete incumbents ("We're replacing the NIH!" “We’re replacing Harvard!”), even if their approach is vastly better.

        6 proslijeđenih tweetova 36 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      24. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        That is: there is no strong growth model or notion of competitive displacement for scientific institutions. And this means stasis and homogeneity and monoculture, a lack of organizational change and learning. This is terrible for science.

        36 proslijeđenih tweetova 149 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      25. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Indeed, it creates a sense that science _must_ be done this way. We must have PIs, a group is composed in such-and-such a way, scientists have a particular career path, are of a particular age, have a certain type of mentoring, produce a certain kind of output, etc.

        9 proslijeđenih tweetova 71 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      26. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        But we could change each (or every!) one of these in radical ways.

        1 reply 2 proslijeđena tweeta 31 korisnik označava da mu se sviđa
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      27. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Furthermore, it produces apathy. Every scientist has ideas for how to do things differently at the institutional level. But without a growth model for the best ideas, it's easy to feel it's not worth it, that things are forever stuck.

        4 proslijeđena tweeta 29 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      28. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        If you start a better grant agency, it's not going to displace the NIH. But perhaps it should.

        2 proslijeđena tweeta 18 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      29. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        A few ideas I like (no implied endorsement by Patrick, or originality on my part). Very telegraphic & incomplete - lots of nuance missing, and obvious problems that need to be addressed.

        3 proslijeđena tweeta 12 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      30. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Figure out how new fields are produced. At the moment there's a _lot_ of inhibitory forces that slow the rate of production of new fields. Can we programmatically 2x or 10x or 100x the rate of new field production?

        11 proslijeđenih tweetova 58 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      31. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 16. stu 2018.
        • Prijavi Tweet

        Far more varied funding strategies: eg by golden ticket (where 1 reviewer can ok a project, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-02743-2 … ); by variance in reviewer scores, using high variance (loved by some, hated by others) as a positive signal; or randomized allocationhttps://mbio.asm.org/content/7/2/e00422-16 …

        1 reply 9 proslijeđenih tweetova 48 korisnika označava da im se sviđa
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      32. Još 5 drugih odgovora

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