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This is a very nice (albeit bleak) general argument: if science requires "failed" work, but individuals whose work fails are punished, then that's a strong push toward cargo cult science. https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/adaptive-behavior/201804/is-science-showing-diminishing-returns …pic.twitter.com/z2zdfLbOC8
The reason I like this argument is that it unifies and explains a _lot_ of bad behaviour. You can play methodological whack-a-mole with things like p-hacking, but if the underlying reasons remain, other problems will crop up in their place.
1) The pressure and competition to produce positive results and pub can be crippling for scientific curiousity and cooperation.. completely agreed - system needs reconfiguration in incentives and feedback loop..
2) That said, one issue is that - based on an assumption that there are fewer pos results than neg- what's the threshold for pubbing neg results? Peer-review of course but how to prevent the flood of neg findings submissions from overloading the system/ overwhelming researchers?
For the key word is "research administrators". Research is intrinsically bottom-up, not top-down. As long as there are administrators and managers in power, there will be pressure on scientists to reach predefined goals.
The other keyword is "careers". Hierarchies in academia have a similar effect as management, just milder because the goals are fuzzier and less short-term.
what this excerpt didn't cover was when the success of a trial is promoted beyond its true accomplishment. take #alphago. with only the basis of beating a go master as a measure of success, it ignored the constraints of processing power, learning time, and learning methods.
Need to shift to a model of resolving hypotheses + strength of evidence. Eg someone who kills a commonly held falsehood with a conclusive experiment should be revered.
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