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michael_nielsen's profile
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
@michael_nielsen

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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Joined July 2008

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    1. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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      Where the extra energy is being stored: mostly (60+%) in the upper ocean (top 700m), and most of the remainder in the deep ocean. Water is an absolutely amazing heat sink (and has an extraordinary specific heat).pic.twitter.com/NhZPXKXWoQ

      1 reply 1 retweet 18 likes
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    2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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      Worth noting the total there - almost 3 by 10^23 Joules (half a mole of Joules, to mix domains!)

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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    3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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      Just for comparison (& my own curiosity), Wikipedia reports world power consumption at about 150,000 TW hr/ year. That's about 5*10^20 Joules per year, so roughly 1000 times smaller.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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    4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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      Hmm. Was wondering why most of the observed warming was over land, but most of the heat is in the ocean surface. Of course, the very high specific heat of water is the reason! Can dump huge amounts of heat there, and get only a small change.

      1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
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    5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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      That fact + high circulation / mixing of ocean water seems likely to be the reason the warming over the oceans is so much more uniform.

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
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    6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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      Interesting to contrast the average temperature anomaly with the sea level change. Some correlation, but the sea level change is much more smoothed out. I don't understand why.pic.twitter.com/4Dj4I2QjAQ

      3 replies 2 retweets 4 likes
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    7. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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      I guess the sea level change is likely responsive to local changes in temperature in polar regions. Which may be more smoothed than global temperature anomaly. (But I don't see why. Also: don't have a good model of the relationship between temp change & sea-level rise, anyway)

      4 replies 1 retweet 2 likes
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    8. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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      Actually, that world energy consumption graph is really fascinating. From Wikipedia: Surprised not to see natural gas rising more. Goes against the common narrative I hear around the rise of fracking / natural gas.pic.twitter.com/MC6BB5Epuy

      3 replies 2 retweets 12 likes
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    9. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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      michael_nielsen Retweeted michael_nielsen

      Curious to contrast with this paper showing evidence that CO2 emissions have peaked (mostly due to fracking):https://twitter.com/michael_nielsen/status/674738150367993856 …

      michael_nielsen added,

      michael_nielsen @michael_nielsen
      Paper in Nature Climate Change (tentatively) suggests global CO2 emissions may be declining http://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2892.epdf?referrer_access_token=s1awyyC-oO6etR336Cj_HNRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0PZ7Wa610RO0dCDFlIIHZ74qcAiRyRLeTjy1w-5IRtPPSUdHbny_NP43wRzYrSEjYc3Yy3cCrW_6kuwy-8K-e8OQuzShps06O73r4wsofA5E-O-EaT7dZSiSRMkiGRrojMwUaRyzOpRy3ekJ1-825iQFi1DD4m81eHFBKN23yCWMP5KNb0xzqXoDieEXqJ8IqROptfJ-r2JDpgA5iSBDIISsx6p41e_yqf5lm2_P31ZPQ%3D%3D&tracking_referrer=www.nytimes.com … pic.twitter.com/RPCzAqPVaM
      3 replies 2 retweets 12 likes
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    10. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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      TIL: Nitrous oxide - laughing gas - is an important greenhouse gas. (I wish water vapour was on this graph.)pic.twitter.com/Nk2Zaa1fTR

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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      Interesting that methane is apparently levelling out. I don't know why.

      11:42 AM - 9 Sep 2018
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      • Smerity
      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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          Also, an estimate I heard in a talk by David Keith: the atmospheric half-life of CO2 is about 1000 years. So without some type of reclamation / sequestration technology, just keeps rising, except over very long time scales.

          3 replies 1 retweet 5 likes
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        2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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          This graph is one of the most fascinating I know of, period (and the error bars are outright the most fascinating I know of). It's the IPCC report's estimate of the radiative forcing due to several sources, with 95% CI's.pic.twitter.com/8H8qMhkO1V

          1 reply 5 retweets 11 likes
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        3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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          A few comments: total estimated forcing is 2.3 Watts per square meter. That's about 0.17% of the solar constant (about 1367 Watts per square meter), a truly tiny (but nonetheless monumental) change!

          2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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          I wish the error bars were discussed a LOT more. A funny thing: in popular writing about climate change, the writer often effectively yells loudly "we KNOW this is going on, anyone who doesn't think so is an anti-science ignoramus." This turns me off.

          2 replies 0 retweets 11 likes
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        5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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          Anyone who discusses a complex subject and turns it into simple slogans, and evinces complete certainty & dismissal of opponents, is someone I have a lot of trouble trusting.

          2 replies 4 retweets 16 likes
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        6. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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          Feynman: "In physics the truth is rarely perfectly clear, and that is certainly universally the case in human affairs. Hence, what is not surrounded by uncertainty cannot be the truth.”

          1 reply 10 retweets 30 likes
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        7. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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          In any case, I find those error bars - and the enormous effort the IPCC has put into really understanding them (and great care in reducing them) - absolutely fascinating.

          1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        8. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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          I'd be curious to know the effect of the Montreal protocol (banning CFCs) on radiative forcing, since - I believe - CFCs are an aerosol reducing radiative forcing. While banning CFCs was a good thing, did it contribute to global warming?

          4 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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          9. End of conversation
        2. New conversation
        1. Open Climate Data‏ @openclimatedata 9 Sep 2018
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          Replying to @michael_nielsen

          "Methane concentrations rose even faster in 2014 and 2015, more than 10 ppb/yr." from the Methane Budget http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/methanebudget/16/files/GCP_MethaneBudget_2016.pdf … http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/methanebudget/ 

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 9 Sep 2018
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          Replying to @openclimatedata

          Oh, thanks!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
          3. End of conversation

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