Matches my anecdotal impression: my beloved Australian east coast really is seeing much less rain. And it wasn't seeing much to begin with. Looks like a drop of 10-20% in my home town of Brisbane.pic.twitter.com/2qtrgzOkFR
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Curious to contrast with this paper showing evidence that CO2 emissions have peaked (mostly due to fracking):https://twitter.com/michael_nielsen/status/674738150367993856 …
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TIL: Nitrous oxide - laughing gas - is an important greenhouse gas. (I wish water vapour was on this graph.)pic.twitter.com/Nk2Zaa1fTR
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Interesting that methane is apparently levelling out. I don't know why.
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Also, an estimate I heard in a talk by David Keith: the atmospheric half-life of CO2 is about 1000 years. So without some type of reclamation / sequestration technology, just keeps rising, except over very long time scales.
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This graph is one of the most fascinating I know of, period (and the error bars are outright the most fascinating I know of). It's the IPCC report's estimate of the radiative forcing due to several sources, with 95% CI's.pic.twitter.com/8H8qMhkO1V
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A few comments: total estimated forcing is 2.3 Watts per square meter. That's about 0.17% of the solar constant (about 1367 Watts per square meter), a truly tiny (but nonetheless monumental) change!
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I wish the error bars were discussed a LOT more. A funny thing: in popular writing about climate change, the writer often effectively yells loudly "we KNOW this is going on, anyone who doesn't think so is an anti-science ignoramus." This turns me off.
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Anyone who discusses a complex subject and turns it into simple slogans, and evinces complete certainty & dismissal of opponents, is someone I have a lot of trouble trusting.
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Feynman: "In physics the truth is rarely perfectly clear, and that is certainly universally the case in human affairs. Hence, what is not surrounded by uncertainty cannot be the truth.”
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In any case, I find those error bars - and the enormous effort the IPCC has put into really understanding them (and great care in reducing them) - absolutely fascinating.
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I'd be curious to know the effect of the Montreal protocol (banning CFCs) on radiative forcing, since - I believe - CFCs are an aerosol reducing radiative forcing. While banning CFCs was a good thing, did it contribute to global warming?
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End of conversation
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Is there an implicit shared Y axis? N2O has ~300 times the effect (over a century) per kilo emitted, but emissions are << CO2. H2O is generally omitted because it's a feedback: it has a short lifetime (days) and atmospheric fraction is controlled by surface temperature.
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