People often claim that if someone _really_ believes something, they should be willing to bet on it at commensurate odds. I agree with this when money is clearly a primary motivator for that person. But if it's not, lack of willingness to bet means little about their sincerity
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Suppose someone offers me a bet, in which either (a) the sun goes down in the west tomorrow, and I win an elephant; or (b) the sun goes down in some other direction, & I lose [whatever]. I won't take the bet, even though I'm certain to win, because I don't want an elephant.
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I think the presumption is that you could easily convert the elephant into something you care about. This is most easily true for money---just donate to charity or some such.
End of conversation
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