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michael_nielsen's profile
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
michael_nielsen
@michael_nielsen

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michael_nielsen

@michael_nielsen

Searching for the numinous. Co-purveyor of https://quantum.country/ 

San Francisco, CA
michaelnielsen.org
Joined July 2008

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    michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 25 Jul 2018
    • Report Tweet

    People often claim that if someone _really_ believes something, they should be willing to bet on it at commensurate odds. I agree with this when money is clearly a primary motivator for that person. But if it's not, lack of willingness to bet means little about their sincerity

    8:28 PM - 25 Jul 2018
    • 3 Retweets
    • 45 Likes
    • Pauli Heisenberg TheBaggers Michael Malo Sri Krishna Nikete Mohammed Adam Joe Philleo MLELWA FADHIL E Q
    10 replies 3 retweets 45 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 25 Jul 2018
        • Report Tweet

        Quite a few replies are having trouble empathizing with the notion of not being motivated by money. Imagine the bet stakes are for a grimblful (win), and a thoktak (lose). These are fictitious, meaningless stakes; not being willing to bet would mean nothing about your sincerity.

        3 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
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      3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 25 Jul 2018
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        Note also that I'm not engaged at all with the question of whether a person should care about money or not - I'm assuming as a premise that the person genuinely isn't much interested.

        1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
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      4. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 25 Jul 2018
        • Report Tweet

        (This is rare for very large sums, though not unheard of - e.g., I know people who've turned down millions of dollars to live modest lifestyles doing things they like. For small sums, it's not uncommon.)

        2 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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      5. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 25 Jul 2018
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        There's an old joke in which an oral exam question in mathematics begins "Suppose n is an integer [etc]", and the student replies "But, professor, what if n is not an integer?" Many of the replies to this thread have been of the form "No way could n have been an integer!"

        3 replies 2 retweets 16 likes
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      6. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Cryptarchist‏ @cryptarchist 25 Jul 2018
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        Replying to @michael_nielsen

        Actually it means even more then: Money is not that important to you, and yet you still don't want to risk any?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 25 Jul 2018
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        Replying to @cryptarchist

        You're assuming the person wants more money. The whole point is they don't.

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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      2. Ian Simon‏ @iansimon 25 Jul 2018
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        Replying to @michael_nielsen

        Snarky response: https://youtu.be/dgct3Jn8pFA  Non-snarky response that agrees with your conclusion: http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2013/05/bets-do-not-necessarily-reveal-beliefs.html …

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 25 Jul 2018
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        Replying to @iansimon

        Nice, though none applies to the context I'm talking about - all of those are from the perspective of a person who cares a lot about maximizing money, which is specifically not the context of my remark. (I like the Tyler Cowen quote.)

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Carlos De la Guardia‏ @dela3499 25 Jul 2018
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        Replying to @michael_nielsen

        Popper mentioned his ‘certainty’ depended on the situation. Where are my keys? On the table. Am I sure? Yep. Wait, my friend’s life depends on this? Well, I think my keys are on the table, but I’m not sure enough to stake their life on it.

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      3. Evan Sandhoefner‏ @EvanSandhoefner 26 Jul 2018
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        Replying to @dela3499 @michael_nielsen

        It's mainly the semantics (as opposed to the quantitative level of certainty) that varies with the stakes, right? I'm 90% certain my keys are on the table either way, but the higher the stakes, the less inclined I am to label that as "sure"

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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