A European Research Council report suggests 79% of projects they fund “achieved a major scientific advance”, & only 1% make no contribution. Also, that they fund mostly “high risk” work I don’t know what “high risk” means if almost e’thing is succeeding:https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05325-4?utm_source=twt_nnc&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=naturenews&sf191358728=1 …
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Reading between the lines it sounds like the "risk" is that assessment of proposals is based on project, not researcher's track record? The old "giving you money is a risk because we've never given you money" trap :)
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Maybe that’s what they mean, but it’s not what “risk” means.
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Presumably they mean that in 79% the paperwork is completely in order, in 20% of cases the paperwork is acceptable and in 1% of cases something goes wrong with the paperwork.
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I think if we only look at the 19% breakthrough, thus 81% non-breakthrough is a bit "riskier". I think by making contact you get an incrementation contribution. Where "advances" (+50%) seems like Ruthian OBP. Even Mike Trout has single digits home run rates...
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I wonder if they have something in mind like this paulg essay about startups http://www.paulgraham.com/swan.html ... could be applicable depending on where you calibrate the majorness of your breakthrough
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As a grantee: one aims super-high and admits in the proposal that this level of success is unlikely ("high risk"). At the same time, intermediate/alternate results are also very interesting and almost guaranteed. Plus, outside of the proposal, there's the unexpected.
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For more details using my case as a particular example, see pages 12-13 on my proposal (which I share online), sections "Risk/gain assessment" and " Action plan associated with the identified risks": https://www.uv.es/gaita/pdf/ERC_CoG_2014_B2_20-05.pdf …
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This is discussed among European researchers all the time here and there. The only explanation I have is that "high risk" means that most likely the project won't be immediately useful for the society ("make your iphone better in 2 years") not that it won't work.
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It's high risk of not getting funding from the ERC.
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