michael_nielsen on Twitter: "A European Research Council report suggests 79% of projects they fund “achieved a major scientific advance”, & only 1% make no contribution. Also, that they fund mostly “high risk” work I don’t know what “high risk” means if almost e’thing is succeeding: https://t.co/NCfmuG3flK"

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1. michael_nielsen‏ @michael_nielsen 28 Jun 2018
  At risk of what? Not succeeding? Sounds like they have about a 1% chance of not succeeding (or 21%, by the stricter standard). Very low risk.
  
  7 replies 2 retweets 25 likes
  
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1. Dan Kaminsky‏Verified account @dakami 28 Jun 2018
  Replying to @michael_nielsen @oanacarja
  
  I see what you’re saying but I think you actually need to talk to domain experts here. You can select from a global high risk population, excellent teams and fund them well, and still get high success rates. Or it can be as you say. Gotta actually look and know what’s there.
  
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1. Martin Mundt‏ @mundt_martin 29 Jun 2018
  Replying to @michael_nielsen
  
  It could also just be the classic loop of needing funding to get funding and pitching "high risk" ideas because they have practically been developed in the old projects already without being reported (due to high risk at that time).
  
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1. Patrick Durusau ‏ @patrickDurusau 28 Jun 2018
  Replying to @michael_nielsen
  
  Too bad the European Research Council has never heard of replication. No list of projects, no data as evaluated given, this is a spreadsheet exercise for publicity.
  
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1. ProjectMatters.IN‏ @ProjMattersIN 29 Jun 2018
  Replying to @michael_nielsen
  
  ProjectMatters.IN Retweeted michael_nielsen
  
  A very common observation . Project Managers categorise risks as HIGH abased on what they ‘feel’ rather than DATA. I often ask them “How often has this happened in last 1 year?; Show me the DATA.” Then they SEE it’s a 1 in 5000 Issue! @timoreillyhttps://twitter.com/michael_nielsen/status/1012499041786007553 …
  
  ProjectMatters.IN added,
  
  michael_nielsen @michael_nielsen
  
  A European Research Council report suggests 79% of projects they fund “achieved a major scientific advance”, & only 1% make no contribution. Also, that they fund mostly “high risk” work I don’t know what “high risk” means if almost e’thing is succeeding: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05325-4?utm_source=twt_nnc&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=naturenews&sf191358728=1 …
  
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1. Lourenço P. Soares‏ @protolous 29 Jun 2018
  Replying to @michael_nielsen @timoreilly
  
  I guess @MazzucatoM can explain
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1. Perrolobo‏ @Perrolobo 28 Jun 2018
  Replying to @michael_nielsen @fjjariego
  
  Just a 1% of IT projects? That makes sense...
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1. Toma Susi‏ @MostlyPhysics 28 Jun 2018
  Replying to @michael_nielsen @jlehtoma
  
  (Successful) proposals almost invariably include more and less risky parts, and partial success may well be a major advance. Also, recognizing the nature of science, the ERC is flexible with changing goals if an unforeseen direction proves more promising. @ERC_Research
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1. Ricardo A. Medina‏ @ricmedr 28 Jun 2018
  Replying to @michael_nielsen
  
  High risk, high reward. They should move to Wall Street.
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