where's "bed wetting"?
Reprising my panic chart for today's chat: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/on-a-scale-of-1-to-10-how-much-should-democrats-panic/ …pic.twitter.com/BgfOAICIpZ
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hopefully not to be replaced by the seven stages of grief on November 9
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Definitely a solid 8 after that NC T+7 SUSA poll out today.
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the splits on that were totally bizarre.
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Trump getting 23% of the dem vote was certainly odd.
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Anxiety feels right, right about now
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where's level 11, apocalyptic
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After the election how will you decide if the model was right? Some ideas...
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One dumb way is to just look at who had the greater modeled probability of winning, and compare against the election results.
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But that doesn't tell you whether your probability was correctly calibrated.
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So maybe a better way is to use the same model to forecast a bunch of races and put each forecast into a probability band.
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then, after the fact, you can see how well calibrated your confidence was.
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of course, there's still the problem of correlation between races.
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How come the media aren't giving air time to Trumps upcoming court appearances just taking about emails? Thanks
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I'm a solid 9. No, 10. No, 9. No - never mind. I'm confident. I'm a 4. BS, I'm a 14. 41. 441. 444! 666! OMG I'M FREAKING OUT!!!
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so there's no way to not be concerned at all?
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By the left when they realize you're selling snake oilThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
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