Random thought: Conditional probabilities are weird. A candidate with very low probability of winning primary might have very high probability of winning presidency conditional on winning primary. Because the same miracle that won the primary would probably win the presidency too
another consideration: you wouldn't just vote for the candidate who has the highest conditional probability of winning. you should take into account how much your vote improves their chances getting to the conditional (winning the primary).
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adding your vote to a candidate with ~0% chance of winning the primary would seem to change their chances less than adding your vote to a candidate with, say, ~50% chance. (or my intuition is false... but it seems like it should be nonlinear in p)
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