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Replying to @literalbanana @RichardYannow and
This is a poor example for the bias bias phenomenon Gigerenzer is trying to illustrate. This is a case of not parsing and understanding the problem correctly, not a case of having perceived experience tell us that HHHT is more likely than HHHH.
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Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and
This isn't a case of "small sample statistics differing from large sample statistics". In the large sample (large sequence) case, both HHHH and HHHT show up in every iteration if the sequence is large enough.
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Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and
In this case it's merely a coincidence that, as he claims, "the human intuition is correct". The human intuition that thinks HHHT should be more likely to "come first" hasn't processed and understood the problem correctly.
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Replying to @petespetes @RichardYannow and
curious 1) if you’d say he’s wrong here (screenshotted) and 2) what a better example would be?pic.twitter.com/sCzfaTG2PO
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Replying to @literalbanana @RichardYannow and
He's not wrong, he just describes a phenomenon that isn't as interesting/relevant as he wants it to be, and the description is incomplete. The guy sitting at the wheel is *not* more likely to see RRRB before he sees RRRR. Gigerenzer almost implies that.
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Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and
Actually he is more likely to see a RRRB before a RRRR. The expected waiting time is less. The basic intuition is that when RRRR comes first, RRRB can come on the next spin, and will come as soon as a B comes. But when RRRB comes first, RRRR can't come until RRR happens again.
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Replying to @metapotat @petespetes and
except i believe it should read "the basic intuition is that when *RRR* comes first, RRRB..."
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Replying to @realjdburnett @petespetes and
No, I mean when RRRR comes first. The target is RRRR or RRRB.
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Replying to @metapotat @petespetes and
right, but once RRRR comes first we stop - how is the next round relevant
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Because the expected waiting time for RRRB doesn't care when RRRR shows up
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Replying to @metapotat @realjdburnett and
(this is the wrong thing to compute if you're interested in what shows up first, but it's also what Gigerenzer says in the paper, so I was trying to understand why it's true)
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Replying to @metapotat @petespetes and
ah ok - got it subtle point
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