Your explanations are exactly correct. The simulation is correct for the phenomenon the OP describes, but the concept is rather contrived and poorly explained, and isn't an interesting result for any practical purposes I can think of (except hustling foolish bettors).
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https://twitter.com/rfinz/status/1222390589309800448?s=19 … yeah I think that's what I accidentally did here *first* arrival chance always equal
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yes, first arrival equal, subsequent RRRBs more likely
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