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    1. Richard Yannow‏ @RichardYannow Jan 28
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      Replying to @RichardYannow @spiderfoods and

      There is a subtle effect where, given that you're seeing a finite n number of flips, it is more likely that those n flips contains more HHHT than HHHH than vice versa (balanced out by a greater chance of larger leads for HHHH). But that's much smaller and subtler than your pic.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    2. Richard Yannow‏ @RichardYannow Jan 28
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      Replying to @RichardYannow @spiderfoods and

      And "does take less time to show up" doesn't make any sense to me, if it means which occurs first. Neither occurs until you get HHH, and then whichever flip comes next is 50%. My guess is a reporter credulously paraphrasing without understanding. (But maybe I'm missing something)

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    3. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @RichardYannow @spiderfoods and

      Your explanations are exactly correct. The simulation is correct for the phenomenon the OP describes, but the concept is rather contrived and poorly explained, and isn't an interesting result for any practical purposes I can think of (except hustling foolish bettors).

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    4. Extraordinary Banana‏ @literalbanana Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @RichardYannow and

      see https://www.nowpublishers.com/article/OpenAccessDownload/RBE-0092 …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @literalbanana @RichardYannow and

      This is a poor example for the bias bias phenomenon Gigerenzer is trying to illustrate. This is a case of not parsing and understanding the problem correctly, not a case of having perceived experience tell us that HHHT is more likely than HHHH.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    6. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and

      This isn't a case of "small sample statistics differing from large sample statistics". In the large sample (large sequence) case, both HHHH and HHHT show up in every iteration if the sequence is large enough.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    7. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and

      In this case it's merely a coincidence that, as he claims, "the human intuition is correct". The human intuition that thinks HHHT should be more likely to "come first" hasn't processed and understood the problem correctly.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    8. Extraordinary Banana‏ @literalbanana Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @RichardYannow and

      curious 1) if you’d say he’s wrong here (screenshotted) and 2) what a better example would be?pic.twitter.com/sCzfaTG2PO

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    9. petes‏ @petespetes Jan 28
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      Replying to @literalbanana @RichardYannow and

      He's not wrong, he just describes a phenomenon that isn't as interesting/relevant as he wants it to be, and the description is incomplete. The guy sitting at the wheel is *not* more likely to see RRRB before he sees RRRR. Gigerenzer almost implies that.

      3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    10. very offline potat‏ @metapotat Jan 28
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      Replying to @petespetes @literalbanana and

      Actually he is more likely to see a RRRB before a RRRR. The expected waiting time is less. The basic intuition is that when RRRR comes first, RRRB can come on the next spin, and will come as soon as a B comes. But when RRRB comes first, RRRR can't come until RRR happens again.

      4 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
      very offline potat‏ @metapotat Jan 28
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      Replying to @metapotat @petespetes and

      (this should not affect your betting behavior at the wheel, but that wasn't the question)

      9:51 PM - 28 Jan 2020
      • 5 Likes
      • goat_cliff_turangalila.mp4 Raymond Charlie Awbery the phantom lord from back when metallica was Good Extraordinary Banana
      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
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        2. Extraordinary Banana‏ @literalbanana Jan 28
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          Replying to @metapotat @petespetes and

          I’m having flashbacks to when I was going through the animal literature on the monty hall problem (pigeons, goldfish, etc.) and it was an unbelievable mess

          3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        3. very offline potat‏ @metapotat Jan 28
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          Replying to @literalbanana @petespetes and

          Wait, get ready for more mess, I'm backtracking some.... That intuition still only applies across sessions at the wheel. In the same session, it doesn't apply. They're equally likely to come first.

          2 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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