Turchin's overproduced elites map better onto humanities degree holders. Lawyers, Literature scholars, etc. Growing production of these degrees, but not growing consumption.
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Replying to @metapotat @Peter_Turchin
You're extremely wrong if you think the STEM class is not part of the crippled elite. There's an entire suppression of what Murray would refer to as a "cognitive elite" who are now finding themselves overproduced *in relation to* immigrant influx. Turchin discusses this, too.
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Replying to @LTF_01 @Peter_Turchin
I'm having trouble seeing them as crippled
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Replying to @metapotat @Peter_Turchin
Underpaid due to an advanced racket scheme carried out by their bosses, outfluxed by Chinese immigrants just as you and eigen were saying you had no problem with? Did you read Eric's piece?
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Replying to @LTF_01 @Peter_Turchin
Yes, I did (years ago anyway). I understand they are underpaid relative to what they would be under the counterfactual with less high skilled immigration. But they are still well paid relative to society as a whole. Crippled is a stretch.
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Replying to @metapotat @Peter_Turchin
Continuously dissatisfied because they're negged by their bosses into working for less because their postdoc, tech, and highly skilled but underpaid positions are being given to people willing to work for next to nothing. Everything here is accounted for by Turchin.
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Replying to @LTF_01 @Peter_Turchin
PhD scientists don't even make Turchin's list of elites in the U.S. http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/intra-elite-competition-a-key-concept-for-understanding-the-dynamics-of-complex-societies/ …pic.twitter.com/NO8ccXOvwP
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Replying to @metapotat @Peter_Turchin
"They include (but are not limited to)..." Turchin's definition is historically constrained, and for good reason, it fits the use of cliodynamics (historical variables which can be measured). You are forgetting the component of *elite aspiration*, causally present in his theory.
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Replying to @LTF_01 @Peter_Turchin
"...elites are simply a small segment of the society who concentrate social power in their hands. They are the power-holders..." http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/who-are-the-elites/ … This is not your average PhD scientist. This is not the vast majority of PhD scientists.
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Replying to @metapotat @Peter_Turchin
"Competition among the elites occurs on multiple levels." I really don't want to be rude here, but we're splitting hairs now. Aside from the blog have you looked at his models? This is honest-to-God a classic and symptomatic example of immigration effects on elite aspirants.
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I don't see PhD scientists as elite aspirants, under Turchin's definition of elites. They aren't seeking power. I've read secular cycles. I haven't actually read his blog, I was just googling for a quick link.
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Replying to @metapotat @Peter_Turchin
I would keep going, but I have to sleep D: I might emphasize points on the cognitive elite, aspirant expectations, immigration, and the reproducibility of Turchin's models in the system. It matters not that they'll be presidents, it matters that they're losing out en masse.
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If I'm up tomorrow I might come back to this, but I'll bookmark it for now. We could always @ the man and see if he has thoughts, too
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End of conversation
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