And I do not understand the math behind the Gaussian assumption or the SIR model. I'm not drawing a strong conclusion from this article, aside from "dang, my heuristics about this might be off by a lot"
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It's not a Gaussian, but a right skewed distribution, probably with multiple smaller peaks. I just tried to nuke the hope that we can push the curve down into a manageable region by asking people to stop licking door handles
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I honestly don't get everyone nitpicking what you've done. It obviously has a broadly very applicable point-- that we really need to be aiming to eradicate this thing altogether.
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