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mesolude's profile
Marie
Marie
Marie
@mesolude

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Marie

@mesolude

when a pickpocket meets a saint all he sees are pockets

San Francisco, CA
narrativemancy.com
Joined January 2013

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    Marie‏ @mesolude 6 Sep 2019
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    Why do power laws exist? I have an intuitive understanding of how bell curves fall out of accumulated random events. -Similarly, is there a simple principle causing power laws to appear everywhere? -How can we predict that something will follow a power law distribution?

    9:15 AM - 6 Sep 2019
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    • warning: tweets unrelated to news nj David Laing Deictic ian hines Ben Kris Buote Peter Isaac Simon QC
    11 replies 1 retweet 40 likes
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      2. Visakan Veerasamy‏ @visakanv 6 Sep 2019
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        Replying to @mesolude

        I once tried to make sense of it in a fudgy way as something like – "the power law is the bell curve applied to networks". Ie just as there is a likeliest outcome (average height), there is a likeliest schelling point (wealthiest person), and the wealthiest person gets wealthier

        1 reply 0 retweets 11 likes
      3. James Clear‏Verified account @JamesClear 6 Oct 2019
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        Replying to @visakanv @mesolude

        One way to think about it: When a bell curve distribution encounters a winner-take-all situation, the person/people at the tail end of the curve get power law returns. More here:https://jamesclear.com/the-1-percent-rule …

        1 reply 2 retweets 15 likes
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      2. Venkatesh Rao‏ @vgr 6 Sep 2019
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        Replying to @mesolude

        Per Bak, Self-Organized Criticality was the old classic on this. They never did find a general result like central limit theorem iirc, only local constitutive laws and mechanisms like preferential attachment. Graphs, sand piles etc all have local explanations. No grand theory.

        1 reply 1 retweet 14 likes
      3. Rahul Ramchandani‏ @Rahul_Ramc 6 Sep 2019
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        Replying to @vgr @mesolude

        Do you have any recommended reading material for this? I'm interested in the question - what makes certain domains amenable to power laws vs not.

        2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      2. Marcus Newton  🐬‏ @themarcusnewton 6 Sep 2019
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        Replying to @mesolude

        Runaway positive causal loops create power dists, until the system stiffens and locks up. When the system can't continue in the stuck form, due to environmental threats, the system discretely shifts to decouple from the power dists

        1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
      3. mutwiri‏ @maorwed 6 Sep 2019
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        Replying to @themarcusnewton @mesolude

        I like this idea of the power law being just a different form of equilibria.

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. End of conversation
      1. Growth Complex‏ @growthcomplex 6 Sep 2019
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        Replying to @mesolude

        Feedback loops essentially. So advantage compounds. An early headstart provides advantage, which compounds into more advantage. Whether it’s a tree in the jungle, a city, a company.

        0 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
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      1. will minshew‏ @wminshew 6 Sep 2019
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        Replying to @mesolude

        compounding &/ feedback loops

        0 replies 0 retweets 9 likes
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      1. Rory‏ @scedastic 6 Sep 2019
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        Replying to @mesolude

        To (maybe?) answer the second q, I'd predict power laws where advantage tends to be cumulative. So, well-cited academics' names appear in print more frequently, leading to more citations; people who have more money can be more risk-neutral, leading to higher expected returns etc.

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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      1. Atul Varma‏ @toolness 6 Sep 2019
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        Replying to @mesolude

        oh i am reading about this kind of thing in @nntaleb’s Black Swan right now. He calls bell curve land Mediocristan and the other place Extremistan, though he characterizes the latter as more unpredictable and Mandelbrotian than power law-ish?

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