The new @Davos Global Risks 2020 is filled with profound yet vague predictions. Let's offer some @superforecaster rigor. What's the implied probability of:
"More common extreme weather events could make insurance unaffordable or simply unavailable." (p. 32)
@PTetlock @dgardner
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Alas, the
@wef folks didn't include a time horizon or other details like that. -
I work in insurance... it's kind of important
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