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Prikvačeni tweet
Thanks for the requests to share some Liverpool University “Brexit Videos” via my twitter account. All links to our "EULaw@Liverpool" youtube repository. 1/9: pre-referendum talk on the UK in Europe / the likely effects of a Leave victory https://youtu.be/ic8A7KXFkKY via
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Just rereading UK statement on future relationship negotiations with EU, in prep for tonight's talk with
@WWWednesdayLPL All those Leave campaign promises? May's "deep & special partnership"? Even Johnson's revised Political Declaration? All history. This is an extremist Brexit.Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
ps, that's not an argument against Scottish independence! Point is: UK Gov is imposing a policy that limits Scotland's choices / makes them more difficult. So if anything: it's an argument for Scotland to have proper say on own future rather than it be dictated by hostile UK Gov?
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Can we be confident that Johnson & his Hard Right Brexit Buddies thought through those really fundamental domestic consequences of their anti-EU, Trump-licking nationalist propaganda about "Global Britain" casting off the Brussels yoke? Answers on a postcard to "Bleeding Obvious"
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2) more UK diverges from EU, more difficult trade & security relations might well become, if and when Scotland votes to become independent sovereign state within EU (assuming what remains of UK is still third country): all those hard/soft border problems will be back again...
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1) more UK diverges from EU, more there is scope for devolved divergence within UK between Scotland, Wales, NIreland & England = problems of "UK Internal Market" become even more pressing, yet remain just as difficult to resolve (while still almost absent from Westminster debate)
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Important to highlight (often neglected) question: how does UK government's policy choice to pursue only distant future relationship with EU, then impact back upon equally important policy dilemmas still to be made about internal UK governance / future relations? Two examples...
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9) And crystal clear from cynical behaviour of main Leavers, as well as gullible reaction of sheep-like supporters, that's exactly how game is now being played. January 2021= heading for equivalent of no deal at all; but nothing to do with Brexit, all someone else's (EU) fault...
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8) 3rd (implicit but obvious) tactic: transition creates space and time between act of withdrawal and its true / full consequences - offering Tories plausible deniability to avoid accountabliity & responsibility. "Brexit got done" but when it inevitably hits fan: not our fault!!!
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7) 2nd goal: provide bridge between life as MS + life as third country under new trade & security deal = everyone only has to suffer one major upheaval rather than 2. But UK refusal to extend transition = no longer realistic! If UK really wants any deal, will mean 2 major changes
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6) 1st purpose: give more time for UK & EU to make logistical preparations for full consequences of withdrawal (having started from base point of zero). In end, protracted Art 50 negotiations did that anyhow. But transition still provides another 11 months on top. So "half-tick"
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5) but main point of political / public interest = will transition successfully serve its intended purposes? Of which there are 3: two explicit in Florence speech; plus another one evident from everything UK government has done since and especially under the Johnson regime...
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4) transition raises many interesting questions. E.g. is it even lawful for EU to treat third country as if still Member State for vast range of purposes? E.g. would rest of world voluntarily agree to EU request that UK be treated as if still covered by existing trade etc deals?
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3) hence "vassal state" objections by Tory right [most later voted for it anyway]. UK attempts to change terms as laid down by EU bore only limited fruit, e.g. yes to opt out from certain foreign policy decisions; but no concessions on free movement / ability to veto new EU rules
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2) Subject to some exceptions, e.g. EU states can decide not to extradite own nationals to UK anymore even during transition. Yet main difference = UK as a third country must obey all EU rules as if still a member, but without any institutional representation, votes or influence
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1) in early days of withdrawal negotiations, EU27 & UK each suggested some form of transition. But final model was formally requested by UK Government in "Florence Speech" of Sept 2017: UK technically leaves EU, but nothing should actually change for fixed period of time, please
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Lots of questions about the transitional period: what is it, why have it, what good does it do etc... So here is a short thread summarising the key points (drawn from my full analysis as published in Common Market Law Review):
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And hearing Johnson pose as champion of global trade, at very same time as setting out UK plan for greatest act of economic segregation in modern history = sort of repulsive Orwellian politics now normalised in Brexitland. Every sane citizen should reject this Kafka-Trump culture
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But of course, his vision won't really be delivered: full tariff free access with no level playing field regime? Oh, grow up. And equally obvious: no serious chance of grown up deal being sorted & in place by 2021. So prudent actors: get ready for delayed Tory Brexit cliff edge
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Cut through halfbaked & halftruth waffle of Johnson statement on future relations & what's left? At end of 2020, there WILL be substantial rupture in EU-UK relations. For many sectors, even if his vision were delivered by 01/01/21, wouldn't differ much from having no deal at all
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By the way, to the fencesitters who say "they're all the same": there is absolutely zero moral equivalence between hard right motives / degenerate tactics of Johnson & Co v. those of us trying to uphold basic standards of political probity & defend liberal social market democracy
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