As an investor, my hindsight insights are amazing. I’m savant at explaining trends that have already happened. I can sound smart in any conversation about the past. But what will happen in the future? That’s what founders figure out - not investors.
The saddest part is this guts the team of the best leaders in the ranks, lessening the ability for the organization to perform over the long term.
Bad leadership is a cancer.
A hilarious aspect of corporate life is that we invent all sorts of structure & process to try to make 2 teams collaborate better together, hardly ever acknowledging the actual problem that the leaders of those 2 teams don’t actually get along and/or have conflicting incentives.
See Workers as Workers, Not as a College Credential — a window into the important movement to value career and life skills apart from college credentials.
Sometimes you need to look at the big picture: It's been an incredible rebound from the 2020 pandemic recession.
The US has recovered all output lost in the crisis and gotten back on trend.
GDP
2022: +2.1%
2021: +5.9%
2020: -2.8%
https://washingtonpost.com/business/2023/01/26/gdp-2022-q4-economy/… via
A new report from @CredEngine estimates that there are 1,076,358 unique #credentials in the United States. The credential landscape is vast—perhaps larger than many imagined. We need to use these data as a motivator to work towards #CredentialTransparency. https://bit.ly/3F8YyF1
Exercising 150 minutes per week for 4 months is equally as effective as taking an antidepressant for depression, review finds.
Get outside and get moving.
Start small and easy. For many, a walk is enough when you are starting.
Here is an unknown (until today) story that Warren Buffett told me when I was 21.
It has to do with the first ever lawsuit he was involved in. It is not previously reported anywhere, online or offline, and inspired me to change the direction of DoNotPay:
. Already seeing the potential for this org to revolutionize economic mobility through it's radically transparent, collaborative, risk tolerant and data driven approach. 📈🚀💵
Stripe will now be "processing a significant portion of Amazon’s total payments volume across its businesses, including Prime, Audible, Kindle, Amazon Pay, Buy With Prime, and more."
Today, Stripe takes its decade-long partnership with Amazon to the next level. We’re now expanding our collaboration to power global payments for Prime, @audible_com, @AmazonKindle, and Amazon Pay. https://stripe.com/newsroom/news/amazon-and-stripe…
There are cities that build lots of housing and where housing is cheap (green).
There are cities that build little housing and are expensive (purple).
There is no city in America that builds lots of housing and is also expensive. That giant red box is completely empty.
...for recessionary cuts all point in that direction.
Recession: 20-25% probability
Immaculate disinflation: 45-50% probability
Growth regime/higher-for-longer: 30% probability
What about the equity market?
And how to approach macro investing in such a binary environment?
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Some favorite survival tactics of managers who don’t actually know how to make impact:
- Need a re-org
- Must hire for a key role
- Need to fix another function
- Have a severe staffing shortage
- Organize a Strategy Summit
- Need a re-org
Can often survive for years this way.
This is actually a pretty ideal work day for parents. Get in that workout, a good nights sleep, family meal / kid time, and a little burst of productivity to pull it together.
Older Dads of Twitter, what advice would you give to your younger self about raising a family?
More kids, off grid, different discipline style, no tech, suburbs, how to spend time, whatever…
Tell us young guys what’s up?
Humility is a virtue, and it’s also holding women & minority founders back.
People need to realize your value, because bias is telling them the opposite.
Extremely proud to announce: For the first time, we deliver third-party certified CDR services to our first corporate customers, including Microsoft, Shopify and Stripe. We're proud to drive high-integrity standards to build the market. Read more: https://bit.ly/3vWHa2d
When Spanx founder Sara Blakely was growing up, her family would go around the dinner table and share their biggest failures of the week.
“Instead of failure becoming an outcome, it simply became about not trying,” she says. “And that truly is the only failure — to not try.”
Fed research: The surge in retirements since 2020 "accounts for essentially all of the shortfall" in labor force participation rates
"More than half of the increase in the number of retirees appears to be a direct result of the pandemic." https://federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2022081pap.pdf…
Noncompetes undermine economic liberty. Evidence suggests they also suppress wages—even for people who aren't bound by a noncompete—and hurt innovation.
In
Two remarkable things happened yesterday:
- The U.S. unemployment rate hit its lowest point in 50 years.
- The economy added 4.5 million jobs--the second strongest year since 1940.
You'd think the media would make this major news. Have you seen it? Anywhere?
A fascinating paper very related to the one above. It uses newly digitized data from the IRS to document that business concentration (measured in sales, assets, net income) has been persistently and monotonically increasing for as long as data is available.