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mattsheffield's profile
Matthew Sheffield
Matthew Sheffield
Matthew Sheffield
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@mattsheffield

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Matthew SheffieldVerified account

@mattsheffield

Founder: @DiscoverFlux host: @TheoryChange Former GOP consultant now trying to expose the dangers of the far right. mws@flux.community

Long Beach, CA
bit.ly/discoverflux
Joined August 2008

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    1. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

      Biden still has the advantage after #Election2020 but it's very clear that pollsters & modelers like Nate Silver badly messed up likely voter models. I tried pitching publications on this topic but editors love group think and were too afraid. Here's some of what happened:

      12 replies 39 retweets 187 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

      Firstly, a huge number of mailed ballots are never returned by voters. Estimates put it between 10 to 20 percent. Likely voter models should have removed some of these people, the plurality of whom were Democrats.

      3 replies 7 retweets 47 likes
      Show this thread
    3. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

      The Trump campaign began boasting about this in mid October but not one MSM or liberal outlet ever responded to this boasting.https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/10/22/data-shows-democrats-failing-early-voting14790167/ …

      1 reply 3 retweets 32 likes
      Show this thread
    4. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

      Democrats who were at the state level, especially in Florida, SAW THIS COMING. They tried to sound the alarm but were ignored by national Dems.

      3 replies 3 retweets 61 likes
      Show this thread
    5. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

      First time mail voters are much less likely to be good at doing the process successfully so Trump's warning to his voters probably saved a lot of them from messing up what can be a difficult thing for elderly, disabled, or people who don't read English well

      1 reply 8 retweets 50 likes
      Show this thread
    6. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

      Florida Democratic organizers tried to warn the Biden campaign in July that they were wasting too much money on TV ads and not enough on connecting to citizens. They were ignored.https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article244480437.html …

      1 reply 6 retweets 62 likes
      Show this thread
    7. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

      As a result of the Biden team failure, instead of getting a lopsided number of absentee votes, he ended up with 50.2% versus 48.9% for Trump.https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-florida.html …

      2 replies 3 retweets 30 likes
      Show this thread
      Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

      This is why Biden lost Florida, pure and simple.

      2:01 AM - 4 Nov 2020
      • 4 Retweets
      • 49 Likes
      • Elizabeth Naming is not Being Martin Vermeer FCD 🇪🇺 Matt Brennan The Last G Millennial Jedi 💛 Lita Co-Op #TrustYourTech🦠💉💯 Suzy-Quzy Danielle Reed Dale Pershad
      1 reply 4 retweets 49 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

          Another flaw of the likely voter models used this year was that they didn't seem to reflect the several states that force people who request a mail ballot but change to in-person to cast a provisional ballot. This means it's not counted on the night of #Election2020

          4 replies 3 retweets 35 likes
          Show this thread
        3. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

          Then of course there is the fact that mailed ballots have a higher rejection rate. This further lowered the Biden vote total, although not to a huge degree. Was it reflected in likely voter models? Beats the hell out of me. No one discussed it as far as I can tell.

          1 reply 2 retweets 37 likes
          Show this thread
        4. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

          It is tough to say nationally how much all of these factors contributed to lowering Biden's totals but my private estimate was that between 2 and 5 percent of Biden support in polls would not survive the voting process.

          2 replies 7 retweets 38 likes
          Show this thread
        5. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

          What's unfortunate about political data and journalism though is that because most editors don't understand math well, they fear publishing others who do. Center left media in the US is also very afraid of criticizing Dem leaders.

          4 replies 5 retweets 57 likes
          Show this thread
        6. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

          And so that's is why America is in such a strange and precarious situation right now. I'm tired of this and will be starting a new outlet very soon to tackle the questions that aren't asked. Please follow if you're interested.

          3 replies 3 retweets 64 likes
          Show this thread
        7. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

          Just to continue on the thread, here is a look at the very low return rates of mailed ballots as currently tallied by @ElectProject. They're still being counted but Biden got absolutely killed by a very low 56% return rate by independents and fairly low 71.6% among Demspic.twitter.com/RnvgKOfMTw

          2 replies 6 retweets 22 likes
          Show this thread
        8. Matthew Sheffield‏Verified account @mattsheffield 4 Nov 2020

          Right now, there are 2,342,637 more Democratic mailed ballots than GOP ones that are outstanding in the 18 states with partisan registration. There are 7,242,151 outstanding independent ballots. Millions of these will never be turned in. Biden got killed by mail voting.pic.twitter.com/k1m86Zb46w

          9 replies 4 retweets 28 likes
          Show this thread
        9. End of conversation

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