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mattparlmer's profile
mattparlmer 🪐
mattparlmer 🪐
mattparlmer  🪐
@mattparlmer

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mattparlmer  🪐

@mattparlmer

Making machines that make other machines @genfabco, rationalist, cryptoanarchotechnocrat

Great Lakes, USA, Earth
mattparlmer.substack.com
Joined February 2011

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    1. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 2 May 2020

      20) I know of very few software companies that couldn't go full remote permanently. I'm not predicting any historic shift at this point though, mainly because I thought we'd see most tech firms commit to permanent full remote in week one of the lockdowns, and that didn't happen.

      6 replies 3 retweets 47 likes
      Show this thread
    2. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

      mattparlmer  🪐 Retweeted

      21) As Adam says, the parallels to Gulf War II and Katrina are striking. Absolutely none of what we're seeing is a novel failure mode. https://mobile.twitter.com/Aelkus/status/1255828023166844928 …

      mattparlmer  🪐 added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      2 replies 4 retweets 43 likes
      Show this thread
    3. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

      22) We see in recent history a correlation between high outdoor temperatures and civil unrest. It's likely that this will be a very hot summer politically, given the other pressures covid exerts. And if people riot, who can really blame them? Things are spinning out of control.

      2 replies 7 retweets 48 likes
      Show this thread
    4. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

      23) The poor have a right to be angry, and while they don't have a right to lash out violently it's totally understandable if they do. The society that failed them for decades is failing them again in their time of acutest need.

      2 replies 10 retweets 57 likes
      Show this thread
    5. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

      24) Whenever I see the lines at food banks I think "the future is here, it's just not evenly distributed yet".

      1 reply 10 retweets 67 likes
      Show this thread
    6. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

      25) The Discourse is fouler than ever, in particular the smug condescension aimed at people who question the necessity of strict lockdowns. When the history of this is written it won't look kindly on those who decided to impose a depression on top of a pandemic.

      2 replies 18 retweets 88 likes
      Show this thread
    7. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

      26) The argument that there is a direct tradeoff between the level of allowed economic activity and human life is one of the most simplistic, fear-driven, fact-free pieces of reasoning I've ever heard, and it is established blue tribe orthodoxy at this point.

      3 replies 22 retweets 83 likes
      Show this thread
    8. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

      27) The lockdowns continue because nobody at any level of government has a plan other than protracted martial law. No central quarantine, no mass testing, no tracing project, no rules for firms to restart safely. Just martial law and politically determined "essential business".

      3 replies 39 retweets 155 likes
      Show this thread
    9. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

      28) Meanwhile we're sending positive cases home to infect their families. We're cramming people into centralized supermarkets that become hotzones. We're not applying pathogen control measures that were well understood by medieval port cities centuries before we had germ theory.

      1 reply 17 retweets 94 likes
      Show this thread
    10. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

      29) National test and trace isn't gonna happen soon enough, because we didn't start in January. Central quarantine likely won't happen in enough places to matter. The idea that the state is even capable of executing effectively against this virus is a dangerous pipe dream.

      3 replies 11 retweets 74 likes
      Show this thread
      mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

      30) What's most infuriating about this is that Hong Kong, a failed state, beat this thing down with little to no serious government attention to the problem in the early stages. Everybody masked up, stopped sending their kids to school, and started disinfecting touchpoints.

      7:40 AM - 3 May 2020
      • 12 Retweets
      • 74 Likes
      • Bry 🇺🇸 Buteo Buteo Kieroshark Kyle acid shill χτύπα με με αυτό Zero HP Lovecraft 🦅🐍 Boku no (definitely not) Vico 𝚠𝚒𝚕𝚍𝚏𝚕𝚘𝚠𝚎𝚛 🌺
      3 replies 12 retweets 74 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          31) Covid never took off in Hong Kong because the people led the effort. The state had very little work to do when they actually kicked into gear. Mass adoption of pathogen defense is the silver bullet, but there has been no attempt to do that in the US.

          1 reply 13 retweets 75 likes
          Show this thread
        3. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          32) If we do ever adopt a defense in depth strategy in the West I expect comprehensive gaslighting from the established institutions, just like what happened with masks, or what could easily happen if hydroxychloroquine trials work out. Nobody will learn the lesson.

          1 reply 8 retweets 67 likes
          Show this thread
        4. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          33) That inability to learn lessons even at tremendous cost is precisely why we need to completely replace most of our institutions. We had our chance for incrementalism and we squandered it. Now we have our chance to be nonviolently revolutionary. Let's hope we use it.

          1 reply 9 retweets 68 likes
          Show this thread
        5. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          34) Stasis is not a thing in politics. You can have relatively stable conditions for long periods of time, but things are constantly shifting in all manner of dimensions. There is no status quo ante that we can return to. No changes are permanent, but change is.

          1 reply 3 retweets 37 likes
          Show this thread
        6. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          35) I just don't understand the thought process that feeds into wanting to ban guns while simultaneously being terrified of political rivals who have guns that aren't going away even in a ban scenario. Why not arm up yourself? Is it just hoplophobia? Why do most progs think this?

          4 replies 4 retweets 36 likes
          Show this thread
        7. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          36) I've been thinking a lot lately about Georgism and its prospects. The wave of neo-Georgist thought characterized by the Weyl-Posner work is still building, but to what end I'm not sure. They present an excellent grab bag of ideas, but with few paths to implemention.

          1 reply 2 retweets 33 likes
          Show this thread
        8. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          37) I think Georgism and the land value tax was kneecapped by the emergence of the far less just, far easier to manipulate income tax regimes that we have today, and I think that kneecapping happened because the oligarchs of the time wanted it to.

          2 replies 2 retweets 42 likes
          Show this thread
        9. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          38) The New York Times is a hereditary monarchy.

          2 replies 10 retweets 50 likes
          Show this thread
        10. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          39) Major universities have similar corruption patterns to the monastic estates of the Renaissance.

          2 replies 7 retweets 54 likes
          Show this thread
        11. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          40) 20th century prog institutions increasingly resemble a decayed ancien regime.

          1 reply 7 retweets 40 likes
          Show this thread
        12. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          41) The fact that people have a hard time thinking about the possible outcomes of drastic political change over short periods of time is exactly what makes those moments of dramatic change dangerous.

          1 reply 3 retweets 36 likes
          Show this thread
        13. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          mattparlmer  🪐 Retweeted mattparlmer  🪐

          42)https://twitter.com/mattparlmer/status/1256444607371579393 …

          mattparlmer  🪐 added,

          mattparlmer  🪐 @mattparlmer
          Overapplication of the precautionary principle is the root of a lot of society's problems.
          Show this thread
          1 reply 3 retweets 31 likes
          Show this thread
        14. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          43) Blue tribe people should understand that the charitable explanation for shutdown fetishism is that supporters are out of touch and don't understand the conditions being experienced on the ground. The less charitable explanation is increasingly the consensus among some people.

          3 replies 3 retweets 38 likes
          Show this thread
        15. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          44) By the time early March came around even I was supportive of a multiweek national service industry lockdown and office work-from-home order. Most firms were sending their staff home anyway. We needed to buy time to scale up a response. And then nobody in government did shit.

          1 reply 11 retweets 77 likes
          Show this thread
        16. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          45) Think about that. We shut down the entire economy. People mostly complied, knowing they were putting their livelihoods at risk, out of genuine civic and humanitarian spirit. And the bureaucrats at every level of government pissed away the time that we bought them.

          6 replies 42 retweets 161 likes
          Show this thread
        17. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          46) Why should we trust these institutions with anything ever again? Why should we trust the alphabet soup to do its job in any matter of consequence? What titanic failures happen under the surface and never float to the top for the public to see?

          3 replies 18 retweets 89 likes
          Show this thread
        18. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          47) Action and inaction have consequences, and those consequences always play out one way or another. We've had zero accountability for the institutions that have steered our society into disaster after disaster over the last few decades. This will all eventually come to a head.

          2 replies 6 retweets 47 likes
          Show this thread
        19. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          48) When it does, the people in the institutions who slept through this had better hope the reckoning stays limited to hearings, sackings, and new names for some agencies. I have a feeling it's gonna go a lot further than that, and I just hope things stay peaceful.

          1 reply 4 retweets 38 likes
          Show this thread
        20. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 3 May 2020

          49) Young people in DC need to pick what side of this they plan to be on, because the barbarians are gonna be at the gates soon and it's not gonna go well for people who don't throw the doors open. You really don't want to be a part of Team Status Quo Ante.

          3 replies 5 retweets 38 likes
          Show this thread
        21. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 5 May 2020

          50) My immediate family's quarantine morale is high. That said, there's a lot of rational concern about the next month, mainly on the economic and political side.

          3 replies 0 retweets 13 likes
          Show this thread
        22. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 6 May 2020

          51) Been thinking a lot about quarantine morale as a measurable thing. You could gauge response to various degrees of lockdown with phone and email surveys. I'd imagine freely available public sentiment data on that sort of stuff would be useful to a wide range of groups.

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        23. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 6 May 2020

          52) When I worked in polling we did a lot of data collection on forward-looking sentiment in specific emotional terms and then layered health data over it. Sicker areas were more negative in aggregate, which makes sense. Thinking about how we could measure that right now.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
          Show this thread
        24. mattparlmer  🪐‏ @mattparlmer 6 May 2020

          53) One thing I'd like to look for is a "Blitz mentality" with regard to quarantine, and what that might look like relative to peoples own expectations about outcomes over time.

          1 reply 0 retweets 8 likes
          Show this thread
        25. End of conversation

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