Fundamental flaw in political analysis from the hardcore anti-Trumpites: They don't seem to recognize that Trump agenda has basically been co-opted by the establishment. Best way to view GOP in Trump era as "coalition government" of establishment/populists...
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having covered 2008 campaigns and reading numerous "GOP extinction pieces" way back when, it's easy to appreciate how resilient our two-party system is.
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Very much hope you are right. But to Matt’s point I think potential damage of Trumpism may be worse than Nixon: damage deeper and broader than just a scandal. Will accelerate demographic problems of GOP
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one thing's awfully likely: they will definitely hit rock bottom before things look up again. And with a high ethical cost. So I agree with u on the big pic. I just don't entirely buy the doomsday scenarios.
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Well, Trump's damage isn't done yet.
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People forget how incredibly toxic GOP was in 2008. And yet party rebounded in 2010.
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The incredible amt of self-delusion on this thread is breath-taking. Is not the New South + TX + FL becoming a post-Pete Wilson California? Plus, this rapidity argument assumes cohorts don't remember Trump? Many, esp fast-growing minorities, will remember for a generation to come
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I wrote a whole book warning Republicans to avoid Trumpian politics—partially based on what you’re saying. There’s no doubt there will be a cost. My point is simply that the gop won’t be permanently locked into a Trumpian brand if they abandon him.
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But what is likelihood of GOP abandoning him? In a political world where the political vector is increasingly isolationism vs. inclusion, at some point the GOP has no luxury of choosing. Its own voters, & an inclusion-oriented Democratic party, wont allow them other alternatives
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However, the Democratic party won't be able to be "inclusion-oriented" if it continues to adopt a hard-leftist line in the culture war. Indeed, a lack of cultural inclusiveness helped pull down HRC.
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A pro-choice Democrat just won Alabama! The cultural war is over-stated. Also, you mistake inclusion only as "cultural" inclusion. What about economic inclusion? Perfect example:
#Farmers4NAFTA. Our farmers are the biggest globalists of all -- Dems r moving towards pro-free trade -
It's doubtful that most D's will be running against candidates w/as much baggage as Roy Moore. And there's an argument that Democratic support for immigration maximalism undermines economic inclusion by lowering wages for working class and recent immigrants.
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Or how about possibility that a Southern Democrat can now win on backs of suburban/minority voters? The cultural war is not a war; it's a rout. If it's an argument btw perils of immigration maximalism & access to export markets, the farmers will choose export markets full stop.
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They don't want to dump Trump, they've proven they would be happy with a Putin/Russia style USA as long as they can be Trump's Oligarchs.
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This suggests that Trump is a unique problem within the party. Palin (and the Tea Party House reps) would seem to suggest otherwise.
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We'll have to see, if Ds regain power, what policy agenda they push. If they go to war over paid leave, early childhood education, etc it'll be hard to shake image of working for big business
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