To be clear, I do think Obamacare will be a problem for Dems next year. But just don't see data showing it caused late swing in VA.
@philipaklein @seanhackbarth I could have sworn it was reported that exit polls showed Va voters were upset about ObamaCare.
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@mattklewis@philipaklein Yes, and I'm sure they are. Doesn't mean it had an effect. -
@seanhackbarth@mattklewis@philipaklein I was, however, the biggest exogenous factor during the closing days. -
@TheRickWilson@mattklewis@philipaklein Since I wonder about the quality of polls, I also wonder about any KC surge. -
@seanhackbarth@mattklewis@philipaklein Sampling question? - model might have been too 12 vs 09. Waiting of smart pollster wisdom. -
@TheRickWilson@mattklewis@philipaklein Me too. No one can offer serious analysis until then. Best we can do is ask good questions. -
@seanhackbarth@TheRickWilson@mattklewis@philipaklein Possible explanations: Sarvis factor, social desirability (to not say Cucc)…(2/2) -
@KSoltisAnderson Have you expressed a view on the "late surge due to Obamacare" theory? -
@philipaklein I have not. Last QPac poll had D+5 Party ID, 71% white, so it wasn't "skewed" in makeup, but did have McA lead widening. - 3 more replies
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@mattklewis@philipaklein@seanhackbarth 53% anti-ACA, 11% of them voted Mac anyway http://bit.ly/HFIQmL See also http://wapo.st/1bbFbEfThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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