@mattklewis if R wins he will be the biggest idiot ever...he will not be able to blame the polls as Gallup and Rass point out...
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@mattklewis the decision to build a model around polls that might not be reliable was his. no getting off that hook.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis so which one is/was more credible? Silver or Coolstandings which had the 11 Red Sox as 95.2% chance on 9/25/11 to make playoffsThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis More likely IMO: His model is wrong by trusting incorrect polls too much.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis Even if Silver is 'wrong' he can still say he got 45/47 out of 50 states but if Romney is down 1-2pts in OH 75% O win is 2 highThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis But the lower prob % assigned an event, the more its occurrence brings into question the model's assumptions/weighting etc.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis Option C: even sound modelling procedures can 'be wrong' +/- a certain tolerance over certain # of trials.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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