@mattklewis I thought the argument was that *SIlver* not the polls are wrong. If all polls wrong, why hype ones that show Romney winning?
"If Silver’s model is hugely wrong...it’s because the polls are wrong." (Pretty sure that's the conservative argument.) http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/10/30/the-nate-silver-backlash/ …
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@jbgaffney Polls and predictions can have real consequences, sometimes becoming self-fulfilling prophesies. -
@mattklewis That model would be based on same polls but maybe weight then differently? Is that what your solution would be? 2/2 -
@jbgaffney you should read my post on this. -
@mattklewis Thanks, just did. You had a "sense" then that the race was 50-50 at that point. But there have been scores of polls since. 1/2 -
@jbgaffney Arguing/debating on Twitter isn't my thing. I'll just say Gallup has Romney winning early votes. That might imply something. -
@mattklewis Agreed -- it might. We'll find out Tuesday. Thanks.
End of conversation
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@mattklewis Silver's strategy is to standout. ALL the polls show Romney winning, so if O wins, Nate will become incredibly famous.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis Silver picks state avgs mix, applies magic of his weightings to it; comes up with an odd 3-1 favorite. He is discreditable.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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