@mattklewis Optics, Matt. Optics! :)
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@mattklewis You guys have given Nate way more attention than he deserves. Let him chew all the pencils he wants.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis hey, did you correct your story on the GOP staffer whobwas attacked for being gay? Seems to have vanished from Caller website...Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis …Nate’s model actually is more optimistic for Romney than a purely state poll-driven model. (2/2)Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis Correct. The measure will be how far off on a state-by-state basis the forecast ultimately is. But keep in mind that… (1/2)Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis Stats are not supposed to be right or wrong, they're supposed to be stats, right@fivethirtyeight ?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis If Romney wins Silver can say, I didn't give him no chance, I gave him a 25% chance.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis Yep. But you can track his model's record over the long run and judge its quality over many iterations.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis Probability models cannot be proven right or wrong unless the outcome in question can be repeated, like rolls of dice.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis Correct. It's about probabilities, not outcomes.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis Yes. Judge models based on quality of assumptions and data that goes into them.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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