@mattklewis might want to change the +1 to +.1 on RCP...that's where it is
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@Rahnerian Thanks. Proves my point even more.
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@mattklewis@jpodhoretz Silver's prblm now is after a great '08 cycle, he trusts his model. Like bank models that had low housing risk -
@GPollowitz@mattklewis@jpodhoretz Nate's serious about his model/Those guys just wanted to churn for $ and ship out morts./Ratings crap -
@fanniecoralie@mattklewis@jpodhoretz that's not entirely fair. Banks wanted to make money, but not implode.
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@mattklewis the idea that@fivethirtyeight doesn't "have skin in the game" is strange...his credibility as an analyst is always at stakeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis Have asked twice now for him to give me 2.5:1 on any amount wagered, no reply obviously.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis I think brilliant. only 18 days to find out!Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis totally agree with your point re skin in the game. Would like to arrange wager based on the 50-50 odds you are offeringThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis Yes. Those are not mutually exclusive propositions.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis The second one.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis He might be both - not an exclusive proposition.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis Brilliant...when The Narrative is on his side.Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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@mattklewis It's probably a bit of both, to be fair. If you build a complex enough "model" most people just go with it and report as fact. -
@NumbersMuncher@mattklewis But you've given neither a specific critique of his model nor presented any semblance of an alternative model
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