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MattHindman's profile
Matthew Hindman
Matthew Hindman
Matthew Hindman
@MattHindman

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Matthew Hindman

@MattHindman

Professor at @SMPAGWU and research cluster lead @GWIDDP | Author of The Internet Trap and The Myth of Digital Democracy (both @PrincetonUPress)

Washington, DC
amazon.com/Internet-Trap-…
Joined August 2009

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    Matthew Hindman‏ @MattHindman 19 Mar 2018

    I am seeing a lot of skepticism about #cambridgeanalaytica’s statistical methods that, while correct, mostly misses the point. Getting good data on 50 million FB profiles would be a big deal _even_if_ CA’s psychometrics were bunk.

    1:14 PM - 19 Mar 2018
    • 103 Retweets
    • 262 Likes
    • Madam Precinct Chair (((Princess of Whales))) Anirban Sen katie cavanagh James Loffler JungHwan Yang Snigdha Stacy King Eccentrica Gallumbits
    5 replies 103 retweets 262 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Matthew Hindman‏ @MattHindman 19 Mar 2018

        This is not about building an ultra-clever statistical model, it’s about being able to AVOID having to build a fancy model in the first place.

        2 replies 13 retweets 84 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Matthew Hindman‏ @MattHindman 19 Mar 2018

        Modern campaign strategy depends on knowing who supports you. For this you could use the partisanship models from voter file vendors. You could conduct a poll. Or you could just knock on every. single. door. and ask who they are voting for.

        1 reply 7 retweets 46 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Matthew Hindman‏ @MattHindman 19 Mar 2018

        In the (few) campaigns with lots of door IDs, a crude model using that data can outperform state-of-the-art models from the best vendors. It’s way more accurate to ask Jane Voter directly instead of guessing her views from her sex, race, age, etc. (yes, even with lying, etc.)

        1 reply 6 retweets 48 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Matthew Hindman‏ @MattHindman 19 Mar 2018

        This why the Cambridge Analytica story is a big deal. Super-simple models -- say, guessing your partisanship is just the average of your friends’ partisanship -- work great, IF you have everyone’s data.

        2 replies 13 retweets 64 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Matthew Hindman‏ @MattHindman 19 Mar 2018

        Matthew Hindman Retweeted Patrick Ruffini

        .@PatrickRuffini confirms that partisanship models based on Facebook data are just as reliable --"if not more reliable" (!!!) -- than voter file data. And FB has data on millions of people that the voter file can’t help with.https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/975115188847435777 …

        Matthew Hindman added,

        Patrick RuffiniVerified account @PatrickRuffini
        And for good reason. Partisanship models based on Facebook page like data are as reliable (if not more reliable) than voter files.
        Show this thread
        1 reply 12 retweets 57 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Matthew Hindman‏ @MattHindman 19 Mar 2018

        LOTS of caveats apply. We don’t yet know exactly what data CA took and how they used it. Microtargeting can backfire (read @eitanhersh). I’m officially agnostic on psychometrics, and of course other campaigns have used Facebook data too.

        1 reply 4 retweets 31 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Matthew Hindman‏ @MattHindman 19 Mar 2018

        Still: if -- IF -- the Facebook data let the campaign directly measure millions of political views they'd otherwise have to guess about, it is a big deal and a big jump in accuracy. That's true even if you think psychometrics is just hocus-pocus.

        0 replies 8 retweets 66 likes
        Show this thread
      9. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Danmoran.eth‏ @DD_Moran 19 Mar 2018
        Replying to @MattHindman

        all you have to do is set up one of those crazy viral Facebook quizzes, put one question about political persuasion in the middle. most people won’t think twice.

        1 reply 1 retweet 7 likes
      3. JuneYourTech (he/him)  🏳️‍🌈 🇪🇪 🇪🇺‏ @JuneYourTech 21 Mar 2018
        Replying to @DD_Moran @MattHindman

        Wasn't there a small monetary incentive involved? — "Answer a few questions, and we'll give you a small amount of $." While there are legit survey companies that do that to incentivise the respondents to spend their time on a poll, then legit outfits use clear informed consent.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation
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