.@bryan_caplan is right about the value of bets: if Warren’s fans had insisted on a 1/64th to 1/1024th ancestry level as a cutoff, it would have looked like they didn’t believe her. I like to think I would have bet ‘yes’ on 1/1024 odds, ‘no’ on, say, 1/8 (one great-grandparent)
12:00 PM - 15 Oct 2018
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