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matt_blackwell's profile
Matt Blackwell
Matt Blackwell
Matt Blackwell
@matt_blackwell

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Matt Blackwell

@matt_blackwell

Associate Professor, @Harvard. Political scientist researching statistical methodology and US politics. he/his

Cambridge, MA
mattblackwell.org
Joined January 2009

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    Matt Blackwell‏ @matt_blackwell 28 Feb 2016

    You can explain ≈ half the variation in the trump SC county voteshare w/ wht median income today and % black in 1940pic.twitter.com/RA3NwYxo0A

    10:44 AM - 28 Feb 2016
    • 49 Retweets
    • 37 Likes
    • Post-liberal Eharding🎄 Kathleen Searles Peter H. Bent National Black Republican Council (NBRC) Alexander Agadjanian Yamil Ricardo Velez Alex Hanna Jonathan Weigel Keng-Chi Chang
    3 replies 49 retweets 37 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Matt Blackwell‏ @matt_blackwell 28 Feb 2016
        Replying to @matt_blackwell

        Interestingly, % black today has no additional predictive power above these two variables.pic.twitter.com/YJmIOIjnh4

        3 replies 6 retweets 7 likes
      3. Prof Dynarski‏Verified account @dynarski 28 Feb 2016
        Replying to @matt_blackwell

        @matt_blackwell in a bivariate of black today & black 1940, what is R2?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. New conversation
      2. Simon Jackman‏ @SimonJackman 28 Feb 2016
        Replying to @matt_blackwell

        @matt_blackwell @BrendanNyhan not bad for two linear additive predictors; would be curious about s(x1,x2)

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Matt Blackwell‏ @matt_blackwell 28 Feb 2016
        Replying to @SimonJackman

        @SimonJackman @BrendanNyhan yeah, surprisingly good, I thought; no luck with interactions with only n=40 but definitely interesting

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Matt Blackwell‏ @matt_blackwell 28 Feb 2016
        Replying to @DenisonBe

        @DenisonBe totally. We do some of this in our slavery paper/book. Traces back to at least the Redemption era

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Matt Blackwell‏ @matt_blackwell 29 Feb 2016
        Replying to @esoltas

        @esoltas nice. it seems as though Trump has different coalitions in different parts of the country.

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Philip N Cohen‏Verified account @familyunequal 29 Feb 2016
        Replying to @matt_blackwell

        @matt_blackwell @esoltas take out Horry County and it's stronger (for current %B / don't know what it was in '40)pic.twitter.com/RjIJpeYXvA

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. Show replies
      1. Matt Blackwell‏ @matt_blackwell 29 Feb 2016
        Replying to @RyanDEnos

        Matt Blackwell Retweeted Matt Blackwell

        @RyanDEnos @sgadarian a fairly precise 0 in this casehttps://twitter.com/matt_blackwell/status/704016645736505345 …

        Matt Blackwell added,

        Matt Blackwell @matt_blackwell
        Replying to @matt_blackwell
        Interestingly, % black today has no additional predictive power above these two variables. pic.twitter.com/YJmIOIjnh4
        0 replies 1 retweet 1 like
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      1. Shana Gadarian‏ @sgadarian 29 Feb 2016
        Replying to @RyanDEnos

        @RyanDEnos @matt_blackwell Side note, props for raw output on Twitter. Nice to see the actual size of coefficients.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. Shana Gadarian‏ @sgadarian 29 Feb 2016
        Replying to @RyanDEnos

        @RyanDEnos @matt_blackwell What's effect on other candidates?

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Matt Blackwell‏ @matt_blackwell 29 Feb 2016
        Replying to @sgadarian

        @sgadarian @RyanDEnos haven't looked for other R candidates. my ocular regression had rubio doing better in cities, but should check.

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      4. End of conversation

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