Existing infrastructure - if operated until the end of its lifetime - commits us to 658 billion tonnes (Gt) CO2 future emissions. That's - 358 Gt from electricity (mainly power plants) 162 from industry 64 from transport, mostly on-road vehicles
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But there's more: over 1,000 GW of fossil-fuelled power plants are planned, permitted or in construction. (20% in China). That gives us another 188 Gt committed future CO2 emissions. TOTAL: 846 Gt "if all proposed plants built and all infrastructure operated".
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According to the IPCC, our remaining 1.5C carbon budget is 420-580 Gt CO2. (To have a 50-66% chance of limiting warming to 1.5C) What does this mean? It means ALL PLANNED, PERMITTED AND UNDER CONSTRUCTION fossil infrastructure must be CANCELLED. Paging
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Done? OK, so now take the 188 from the 846 - but still leaves 658 Gt of committed emissions. Damn! Still over budget. Therefore... to have a better than 50:50 chance of meeting the 1.5C goal another 100-200 Gt-equiv of power plants, cars, industry etc MUST BE CLOSED EARLY.
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Or we ditch the 1.5C target and go for 2C instead. That means: - 99% of coral reefs extinct - 65 million more people exposed to deadly heat - 2x as many plants, 3x animals lose 50% of their habitat as 1.5C - Arctic sea ice disappears - 10 million displaced by rising seas
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... and much more (as I'll outline in the new Six Degrees book). The carbon budget for 2 degrees is bigger, 1170-1500 Gt CO2. Phew - still some wriggle room then! But keeping to this bigger 2C budget means: ...reducing emissions by 5% per year STARTING FROM NOW. Not 2030, now.
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Other options the authors suggest to stretch the budget: - Massive retrofit of carbon capture & storage (ain't gonna happen) - Large-scale negative emissions (trash the biosphere with BECCS) - "Solar radiation management" (geoengineering - ugh)
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Here's what we need to do: - No new coal or gas power plants, anywhere, ever. - Immediate transition to fully electric transport (no more diesel, petrol) - Stop all oil/coal/gas exploration (bye bye Shell/BP/Exxon) - Massive renewables+nuclear deployment - Decarbonise industry
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But where are we ACTUALLY heading? - carbon emissions at an all-time high, 37Gt in 2018, 2% annual growth: https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/18/files/UK_UEA_GCPBudget2018.pdf … - current policies still take us potentially over 4 degrees = climate catastrophe https://climateactiontracker.org/press/cat-annual-update-climate-policies-on-rise-but-government-climate-action-does-not-change-projected-warming/ …pic.twitter.com/UkIh7wisQy
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And if we fail? What does 4 degrees or above mean in terms of climate impacts? *shudder* This is a CLIMATE EMERGENCY. /the end
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