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Thread on #CIVCAS in #Afghanistan from airstrikes as the @nytimes reports US may continue bombing Afghanistan. Data from UNAMA, @CivCenter @hrw and my own time there. In 2008 I researched CIVCAS for @hrw & in 2011 I led UN Protection of Civilians that tracks CIVCAS from all 1/pic.twitter.com/nsPyiRvOiZ
While the vast majority of civilian deaths in Afghanistan are due to the Taliban this does not absolve all parties from their #IHL responsibilities to protect civilians and minimize incidental harm, including the Afghan military. 2/
The number of weapons released are only part of the story and do not necessarily correlate to more civilian harm - it matters where and how you use the weapons (see 2014 lowest CIV deaths from air). However 2018 & 2019 were notable in highs for bombs dropped and CIVCAS 3/pic.twitter.com/YqGbEGQ9Ss
Background: ISAF never tracked CIVCAS until 2007 when they ordered their first CIVCAS report; systematic began 2008. This led to Gen. McNeil issue the 1st Tactical Directive to mitigate CIVCAS by limiting airstrikes. In 2008 after mass-casualty incidents I went to Afghanistan. 4/pic.twitter.com/oSkNiZXMlk
08 was big: ISAF still wasn't tracking and CIVCAS from air at that time was related to SOF. On July 24, 2008 ISAF issued FRAGO 221 requiring reporting and investigation of all CIVCAS incidents. On Aug 22, 2008 there was a US SOF raid in Azizabad that left ~90 civilians dead. 5/
GEN McKiernan immediately created the Civilian Casualty Tracking Center and in July 2009 GEN McCrystal issued a TD amplifying reporting requirements, gave the CCTC more power, and created the JIAT fact-finding missions to investigate ON THE GROUND. That was huge. 6/
@LarryLewis_ found CIVCAS from air dropped after a TD, but trend never held so 8/2010 GEN Petraeus made a new TD. In 2011 I was back and the CCTC was expanded to the CivCas Mitigation Team that added lessons learned and informed ROE and EOF. CIVCAS had a champion within ISAF. 7/
By 2012 the trend lines were much improved. There were still incidents though they were fewer and investigated. It wasn't perfect but better. ISAF and UNAMA worked closer and the data mattered. But in 2014 ISAF was disbanded and the CCMT reorganized and downsized. 8/
The CIVCAS world shifted to the ANDSF who fought creating a CCMT and as Afghan air began kinetic targeting CIVCAS skyrocketed. The US was also protecting ANDSF more and more with airstrikes through 2016. By 2017 39% of CIVCAS from air strikes was from the Afghan Air Force. 9/
Obama had expanded the use of airstrikes in June 2016, authorization was dropped to a lower level, and in 2017 Trump relaxed the ROE allowing for more airpower in support of the ANDSF. Bombs dropped skyrocketed. Airstrike civilian deaths reached never-before seen heights. 10/
In 2020 the Biden administration reduced airstrikes as it sought a peace deal with the Taliban and withdrawal. FYI @USAFCENT has not released airstrike totals for 2020. The US doesn't know how it will support the Afghan Air Force with needed maintenance. 11/
As the Biden admin looks at potential airstrikes in support of the ANDSF post withdrawal please remember the number of deaths from airstrikes. There were 3846 people killed by airstrikes from 2008-2020. Each was a person. They are not a number. 12/pic.twitter.com/nlGRUTaktx
What can be done to improve civilian protection from airstrikes if they come back post withdrawal? Civilian Harm Mitigation best practices must be used. Prioritize civilian protection, create Afghan CCMT, more training for Afghan attack controllers is needed, 13/
reinstate investigations on the ground, have periodic CIVCAS reviews with pilots/targeteers/etc, bring back updated Tactical Directives, CENTCOM needs to work with those on the ground like UNAMA, NGOs, and AFGHANS to improve data & situational awareness. 14/
Recognize civilians harmed, Prevent further harm, Protect civilians, and provide Amends for harm. I recommend folks look at @LarryLewis_ landmark 2010 study Reducing & Mitigating Civ Casualties, work from @CivCenter,@CNA_org,@hrw, @amnesty and @PAXPoC. 15/
BTW the USA authorized $3 million to pay war victims in 2020. They paid NO ONE. Do better @DeptofDefense
Finally, a plug for the Civilian Protection Podcast coming later this month - follow @ProtectionPod for info. Learn about war from the perspective of civilians. Thanks...
Just to clarify, in 2011 I was head of UNAMA Protection of Civilians office in Afghanistan as part of the Human Rights Unit.
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