Why is Japan increasing its military spending? Check out the Hundred with and myself
Marcel Dirsus’s Tweets
Japan was reluctant to invest heavily in defence for many decades after the end of WWII. Now there's a new National Security Strategy which includes a plan for significant defence spending increases. But why? 3 experts provide their analysis in 100 words:
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"Sino-Russian ties can be described as “not always together but never against each other."
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"China and Russia are limited allies."
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There's been a lot of debate around China's role since Russia invaded Ukraine. Where does Beijing stand? Can the West get it to put pressure on Moscow to change course? In that context, one question keeps coming up: Are China and Russia allies? I asked three experts:
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Anyway, not really going anywhere with this, just thinking out loud after re-reading this interview from May last year. It's still relevant, unfortunately.
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Another argument against this: Even assuming that accurate information actually makes its way to the Kremlin, Moscow can't be 100% sure about the West's (or Kyiv's) intentions so increased deliveries probably worry them even if there's no real offensive threat to Russia
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Fair argument in the replies: We don't know what the Russian government has communicated to Biden et al in private (or what they have collected) so it's too simple to say that escalation depends primarily on type of use and not delivery
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Surely what makes the biggest difference in terms of escalation is how these weapons are used and that's an area in which the people supplying the weapons have gigantic influence on Kyiv.
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If you're Putin, is your main concern Ukraine getting Western tanks or are you worried about the tanks primarily because they could be used to try to take back Crimea? Same with jets. They can be used to provide support inside Ukraine or to strike deep inside Russia.
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One of the arguments that I don't really understand is the link between certain weapon systems and escalation. Surely what's likely to be decisive is not which weapon systems are delivered but what is being done or not done with them. Right?
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"The Pentagon is racing to boost its production of artillery shells by 500 percent within two years, pushing conventional ammunition production to levels not seen since the Korean War"
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In turn, their argument might be that any Russian desire to escalate could be easier to deal with because the Americans have more skin in the game if they send Abrams. I personally find that argument unconvincing because the Americans are already very engaged but it's an argument
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Now, the people that opposed Leopard deliveries because of the potential for escalation due to Russia being overpowered are looking at a situation where the very scenario they've always worried about becomes more likely precisely because they linked the tanks
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Once you link Leopard to deliveries to Abrams deliveries, there are essentially two options: The Americans block and you don't end up sending Leopards. Or, and this is what seems to be happening, the Americans change course and both Leopards and Abrams are sent.
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One final thought on the Leopard-Abrams saga: The main argument I've heard against sending Leopards (on their own) has been that they could lead to escalation by empowering the Ukrainians to beat Russia too hard.
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Maybe the Kremlin had godlike intelligence when they decided to invade and they knew that Berlin would react this way, but I very much doubt it. Aside from everything else, they've really really messed up when it comes to Germany
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As for Putin...not to make any definitive predictions because a lot can change in a year but for now, he's lost Germany. "Change through Trade" is dead, public opinion has turned and I really can't see the energy dependence coming back. Seen from the Kremlin, none of this is good
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I'm as frustrated as anyone else by the day to day and I often struggle to make sense of the government's policies but if you look purely at where Germany was and where it is now, a lot has changed. It's slow and it hasn't always been for the right reasons but it has changed
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And the German economy? The impact is clearly larger on some industries than others and higher energy prices are hurting poor households. But contrary to a lot of pessimistic scenarios from last year, the overall economy seems to be doing just fine
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The Greens have gone from campaigning against arms exports to pushing for tank deliveries to Ukraine within less than a year. All this matters not just in terms of party politics because politicians have, to a large extent, convinced voters to back their new course.
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Social Democrats, as reluctant as they have been to change course, have gone from talking about the "impossibility of achieving peace in Europe without Russia" to delivering artillery to Ukraine so that Ukrainians can fight off the Russian invasion. That's big.
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The strategic genius that is Vladimir Putin has not only succeeded in forcing Germany to end its dependence on Russian energy but he has somehow manoeuvred himself into a situation in which Russian troops are about to face German battle tanks. What a colossal failure.
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If these reports are correct, it's a truly terrible week for Russia. First the pledges around Ramstein, then an agreement to send a significant amount of Western tanks.
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Looks like standard diplomacy to me, not sure what makes it imperial
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The curious thing here is that Germany has been so happy to be dependent on the US. Unlike some small countries, Germany could do more to take care of its own security but refuses to do so because the current arrangement has been very comfortable for Berlin.
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"Empire" is a bit much. The United States has a lot of influence over Germany (particularly when it comes to security) just as Germany has a lot of influence over many smaller states in Europe. If the stakes are high enough, both will use that influence to their advantage.
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Right or wrong, wise or not, the decision to send military equipment abroad is for a sovereign state to make. If you urge its senior ally to coerce it into changing its mind, that's a plea for informal empire. Which I don't oppose, but empire sometimes doesn't know itself.
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“U.S. officials say that the Russian [GRU] officers who directed the campaign appeared intent on keeping European governments off guard and may be testing out proxy groups in the event Moscow decides to escalate a conflict.” twitter.com/ewong/status/1
This Tweet is unavailable.
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I understand confusion plays in your favour if you're reluctant to take action but this isn't sustainable. Voters have a right to know where their Chancellor stands on an issue as important as this and the country's reputation is melting down.
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Policy disagreements are perfectly fine but they have to be based on some form of shared reality. The government's communication is so bad that people have spent the last week or so debating what Scholz' actual position is. Not what it should be, but what it is.
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As it is right now, the debate could not be less productive. Everything has been obfuscated to such an extent that people can't even agree on basic facts. Is there a formal request for export approval from Poland? Would Scholz block it? If so, why?
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All I want for the week is for Chancellor Scholz to clearly state his position on tanks and explain it to voters. Do you want to deliver Leopards? Do you not want to deliver Leopards? Will you allow others to deliver Leopards? Will you block others from delivering Leopards? Why?
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And no, it's not just a communications disaster but this thread is already too long.
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Do I know that this is what actually happened? No. It's my best guess but I wasn't in the room or anywhere near the room for that matter. Just trying to figure out how this ongoing communications disaster might have unfolded
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