By the way, if you're wondering what all this talk of a potential "overshoot" of COVID-19 cases in Tokyo is about, congratulations. You're witnessing the birth of a word of "wasei eigo", or "English made in Japan".
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As I understand it, Overshoot implies there is a target. As the infection does not have a “target” it doesn’t seem to be appropriate here.
Yes, "overshoot" implies you're trying to get to a point and you went too far. What you're looking for is more like "overloading" the medical system or "overrunning" hospitals, if you're looking for similar words.
