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1. Our forthcoming work for @L4P_Afghanistan shows that the loss of Kang in Nimroz would deny government affiliated actors just short of $7 million per annum in informal taxes levied on the smuggling of fuel and drugshttps://ariananews.af/kang-district-in-nimroz-province-falls-to-the-taliban/ …
2. There is approx 37 MT of fuel worth $19.2 million p.a. smuggled across the border from Iran at Kang. Transported by tractors, with payments made to private actors & ABP both at the border & as it’s moved by pickups en route to the city of Ziranj, it raises $826,000 in bribes.pic.twitter.com/r3crVUiEz8
3. By far the bigger source of revenue to govt affiliated actors in Kang is the drugs trade. An important entrepôt for smuggling opiates, methamphetamine & cannabis into Iran we estimate govt affiliated actors earn as much as $6.1 million p.a. from the various taxes levied.pic.twitter.com/57oayM46t6
4. As with Taliban in Khashrud & Bakwa the taxes levied on drugs are on weight not on price, although there are monthly taxes on catapults ($ 120/month). We estimate the money earned from drugs by govt affiliates at Kang is greater than that earned by Taliban from Nimroz as wholepic.twitter.com/90DLxp1WPb
5. The real prize is the Customs House in Ziranj. Officially earning the govt $43.2 mill p.a. in customs duties & a further $50 mill p.a. in direct taxes in 2020, we estimate a significant amount of trade enters undeclared, particularly fuel. Revenues could be $176 mill p.a.pic.twitter.com/UVRKklDPPb
6. As highlighted in previous threads the danger is such a move undercuts the Talibans own finances & could upset Iran. Taliban has been successfully collecting taxes on legal goods from Iran transiting Ziranj in the area north of Ghorghory, earning an estimated $54.3 mill p.a.pic.twitter.com/P6VbXPgTtm
7. There is little doubt seizing Ziranj would hurt the govt & it’s affiliates financially but it would lead to further disruptions to a trade with Iran already feeling the fallout from the Taliban’s seizures of Islam Qala & Mile 78 in early July.
8. This puts at risk a trade in diesel alone worth $1 billion p.a. & a trade in transit goods through Ziranj worth an estimated $780 million a year. With sanctions & Covid impacting the Iranian economy trade with Afghanistan is increasingly important.pic.twitter.com/K4pUXqht82
9. It remains to be seen if pushing into Ziranj is a step too far for Tehran who would be totally dependent on Taliban held crossings for trade with Afghanistan & no doubt have fears for the water supply now that Kamal Khan dam is complete.pic.twitter.com/EY44Dcm0E7
10. The financial cost to the Taliban could also be high significantly disrupting trade at the border. But as we have seen in Kandahar & LKG the real cost of a fight for Ziranj will be borne by the population of what had become a relatively peaceful and prosperous city.pic.twitter.com/bFEXvaNi0k
11. Report released next week by @L4P_Afghanistan with @AlcisGeo @smithkabul and colleagues
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