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1. Innovation, access to new technology and illicit poppy has allowed vast areas of barren desert to become productive and valuable agricultural landpic.twitter.com/XdP0kQTJ2X
2. The result is a dramatic expansion in the amount of land under agriculture in the deserts of the southwest and an inflow of almost 0.5 million people in the last five years alone, adding to a burgeoning population of one million who settled there between 2003 and 2014.pic.twitter.com/ndzbNGP1x7
3. This is not a process driven by external development interventions nor regulated by either the government or the Taliban-they are but bystanders in a transformation determined by an unfettered private sector, local understandings over rights to the deserts land.....pic.twitter.com/OLMzZjogWR
4. ... and illicit drugs production (opium and no meth) that has provided the necessary capital and for a successful model of settlement & innovation. The problem these communities now face is the over exploration of the groundwater they depend on.pic.twitter.com/LP7WMSluC7
5. With the water table now falling by up to 3 metres per year - and likely to increase as ever more solar powered deep wells are installed - it is only a question of time before the water eventually runs out and these settlers are once again forced to find a home somewhere new.pic.twitter.com/2vweelJZmk
6. But where will this population of 1.5 million people go? There are such limited opportunities in the main irrigated valleys where they came from & so few jobs in the cities. Could they too risk the long journey across the border & join so many other Afghans enroute to Europe?
7. New report for @AREUafghanistan out in the next few weeks. Builds on a decade of fieldwork and imagery, and over 1000 indepth household interviews in the remote desert areas of Helmand, Farah and Nimruz Produced with long term partners @AlcisGeo @OSDR @AREUafghanistanpic.twitter.com/0qf57mIpLU
Mr @mansfieldintinc
This table shows most districts in Helmand doubled their opium production capacity between 2005-18, yet Washir district (mostly desert area) increased capacity by almost ten-fold
As a British army veteran my theory is #NATO allowed it; do you have a theory?pic.twitter.com/YXJFlxD6CI
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