Dr. Maia Majumder na Twitteru: "I've noted myself that naive CFR estimates are prone to fluctuation, but I also think it's important to recognize what they are, how they're defined, & calculate them as such. Other measures of fatality are welcome, but we should call them what they are (& not what they aren't).… https://t.co/OWFNWWk3eh"

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I've noted myself that naive CFR estimates are prone to fluctuation, but I also think it's important to recognize what they are, how they're defined, & calculate them as such. Other measures of fatality are welcome, but we should call them what they are (& not what they aren't).https://twitter.com/davidmanheim/status/1220017244916326401 …

David Manheim @davidmanheim

Odgovor korisniku/ci @maiamajumder

Initial (naive) estimates of CFR are always overstated because of selection bias for the most serious cases. So our bayesian prior should be a non-trivial proportion of asymptomatic cases. And ignoring this is why we routinely overestimate severity of new outbreaks.

08:21 - 22. sij 2020.

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