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macrocephalopod

@macrocephalopod

Paul Allen, Vice President M&A, Pierce & Pierce (Sie/Hir) | Vegan | Silence is Violence | Women’s Rights Are Human Rights | ACAB (Assigned Cephalopod At Birth)

Joined December 2020

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    1. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames Feb 21
      Replying to @breakingthemark @be20684347 @nope_its_lily

      To an option trader, puts and calls are the same thing. Why do you think that is?

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    2. Matt Hollerbach‏ @breakingthemark Feb 21
      Replying to @therobotjames @be20684347 @nope_its_lily

      Then why is there a volatility smirk if you treat them the same?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. JB‏ @be20684347 Feb 21
      Replying to @breakingthemark @therobotjames @nope_its_lily

      They're not identical (if different strikes). But if upside calls are overpriced, more than likely downside puts are too. @KrisAbdelmessih has some good blog posts on the vol smile & implied distributions. @SinclairEuan has a paper showing puts more expensive than calls generally

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    4. Kris‏ @KrisAbdelmessih Feb 21
      Replying to @be20684347 @breakingthemark and

      Matt, just to confirm put call parity is just on a single strike like was said above (if you find different vols on the same strike, which is common bc of financing assumptions or market width, you generally want to use the vol from the OTM option because it's tighter)

      1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
    5. Matt Hollerbach‏ @breakingthemark Feb 21
      Replying to @KrisAbdelmessih @be20684347 and

      Right, and I was saying the market doesn't treat puts and call the same because a put one standard deviation OTM could be twice the price of a call one standard deviation OTM.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    6. Kris‏ @KrisAbdelmessih Feb 21
      Replying to @breakingthemark @be20684347 and

      Yea totally. A volatility smile exists for plenty of reasons. There's a cap structure argument for it but I find the most useful reason --the world is net long. It's a one sided market of hedgers that clears at a price where risk capital is willing to supply liquidity

      1 reply 1 retweet 11 likes
    7. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames Feb 21
      Replying to @KrisAbdelmessih @breakingthemark and

      Convex negative dependency on global risk is: - an attractive asset - an unattractive liability Buyers happy to pay up for it Sellers demand more to take it on

      2 replies 1 retweet 12 likes
    8. Matt Hollerbach‏ @breakingthemark Feb 21
      Replying to @therobotjames @KrisAbdelmessih and

      yes, and least for the overall market, isn't thats why the vol premium exists and why calls must generally be "overpriced". Since the world is generally long stocks, puts are bid up much high than "fair value" and because of put/call parity calls must be more expensive too.

      3 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    9. macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod Feb 21
      Replying to @breakingthemark @therobotjames and

      Whole argument seems weird to me because surely the most important thing is the portfolio effect? Selling options in isolation is net +EV over time if done in small enough size. But for many people it would be +EV for them to be net long options because the value of

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    10. Euan Sinclair‏ @SinclairEuan Feb 23
      Replying to @macrocephalopod @breakingthemark and

      it seems like you are talking about utility. EV is just a special case of utility.

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
      macrocephalopod‏ @macrocephalopod Feb 23
      Replying to @SinclairEuan @breakingthemark and

      I don't think I am. I mean that there are people who would literally make more money by being long options than they would otherwise (because it enables them to deploy cash into super-profitable opportunities in crazy times)

      7:43 AM - 23 Feb 2022
      • 6 Likes
      • Nomadslyf GreenZenForest Robot James 🤖🏖 Jason @ Mutiny 🦑🪳🏴‍☠️ けものみち🇺🇦🇳🇱🇯🇵🇹🇼🇨🇦🇺🇸🇮🇱 ConvexityCap
      2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        1. Euan Sinclair‏ @SinclairEuan Feb 23
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @breakingthemark and

          oh. ok. sure. market makers buy teenies for this reason.

          0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
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        2. Euan Sinclair‏ @SinclairEuan Feb 23
          Replying to @macrocephalopod @breakingthemark and

          and i'd say that happens when you trade a spread. one leg is often negative ev but the position isn't

          1 reply 0 retweets 13 likes
        3. Robot James  🤖 🏖‏ @therobotjames Feb 23
          Replying to @SinclairEuan @macrocephalopod and

          I would simply trade the mispriced leg only and start a lot of new funds

          2 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
        4. Show replies

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